Africa Political Monitor No. 63

IRAN WAR IMPACTS STABILITY IN AFRICA
On March 2nd, the Iranian government announced that it would be shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical sea passage for oil exports, in response to U.S. attacks on the country. The ripple effects have been felt in Africa, with surging oil prices across the continent and a number of countries, including Nigeria, suspending import licenses to encourage local oil production. Many African nations, such as Kenya and Ghana, are oil-import-dependent and will see sharp price spikes at local gas stations as a result. In South Africa, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana put the country on high alert in anticipation of sustained oil prices from the war, claiming that oil prices "will have an inflationary impact for us. So the war is worrying."

The shift highlights a larger – and possibly long-term – trend. As the U.S.-Iran war persists, African nations may have to shift to local oil supply, intra-African oil trade, or look for new sources from other oil-export heavy countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. (News24, March 5, 2026; Deutsche Welle, March 5, 2026; ABC News, March 9, 2026)

WHAT DOES "AMERICA FIRST" LOOK LIKE IN AFRICA?
Up until now, the Trump administration has given little indication of how it thinks about Africa as part of its "America First" foreign policy. But in recent remarks at the Powering Africa Summit, State Department Africa Bureau senior official Nick Checker explained the new framing. The U.S., Checker said, is seeking to recalibrate its bilateral relationships with African countries based upon mutually beneficial partnerships rather than aid or ideology. He highlighted three focus areas for shifting to U.S. engagements in Africa.

In terms of commercial diplomacy, the U.S. is shifting from aid to trade in Africa, with the objective of increasing U.S. exports and investment in Africa to drive mutual prosperity and harness Africa's natural resources and latent economic potential to secure American supply chains. The goal is to ensure that critical minerals from Africa flow to the United States and not elsewhere.

In terms of foreign assistance, the Trump administration will focus on leveraging foreign assistance where it can advance American interests to carry out both commercial and geopolitical priorities. Key principles of U.S. assistance will now include: that it is conditional; that it is targeted; that it privileges U.S. partners, and; that it has a clear exit strategy. Countries unsupportive of U.S. interests will face reductions in assistance.

Finally, in terms of conflict resolution and management, the Administration is willing to tolerate instability in areas where U.S. interests are not directly threatened. It remains wary of terrorist activity on the continent, but is seeking to avoid a long-term American presence or extended commitments to regional security. Instead, Checker said, Washington aims to prioritize pragmatic cooperation based on shared interests as well as burden sharing. (U.S. Department of State, March 19, 2026)

NEW U.S. SANCTIONS TARGET RWANDA
The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on the Rwandan army and four of its senior commanders, accusing them of fueling the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) via training, equipping and fighting alongside the M23 rebel group. The sanctions come despite the December signing of the Washington Accords by Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, in a peace deal aimed at ending the 30-year-long conflict between the two countries.

That agreement, however, has proven difficult to implement. Days after signing the Washington deal, the M23 captured the strategic Congolese city of Uvira, near the border with Burundi, forcing thousands to flee before withdrawing under pressure from the U.S. government. Kigali, despite compelling evidence, denies supporting M23 and claims that the sanctions unjustly target only one party in the conflict, while its military presence in the region represents a defensive measure. (U.S. Department of the Treasury, March 2, 2026; New York Times, March 2, 2026; BBC, March 3, 2026)

ISRAEL EYES SOMALILAND BASE
Back in December, Israel drew international attention – and criticism – when it unilaterally extended recognition to Somaliland, the disputed territory that seceded from Somalia back in 1991. Just four months later, Jerusalem is moving to solidify its stance, and gain military advantage in the process. In late March, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that it is interested in opening a military base in Somaliland. The move is logical; because of the geographic proximity between Somaliland and Yemen, a military base in Somaliland will give Israel the ability to strategically target Yemen's Iranian-supported Houthi rebels, which continue to menace Israel with missile and drone attacks. (Middle East Eye, March 11, 2026; Al Jazeera, March 12, 2026)