Africa Political Monitor No. 65

EBOLA RESURFACES AMID AID CUTBACKS
Health teams are racing to track, manage and contain a deadly and fast-moving new Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of the virus for which there is no vaccine. As of June 12th, the disease had caused a total of 676 confirmed cases in the DRC, with 136 deaths and 19 confirmed cases with two deaths in Uganda, as well as one probable case who has died, according to the WHO. The virus is spread through close contact with the bodily fluids of sick or deceased patients, making case tracking, isolation of those showing symptoms while they receive treatment, and safe burial practices essential for stopping the spread of the disease.

Multiple challenges make it difficult to contain this outbreak. Problems at a local level include a lack of basic supplies, including of the right tests to detect Bundibugyo rather than other Ebola viruses, mistrust from a community scarred by previous outbreaks, and violence and instability which make service delivery to the areas extremely challenging and sometimes dangerous. Globally, the response is also being hampered by the withdrawal of the U.S. from the WHO in January, and wider cuts to international aid funding on the part of the United States and other wealthy countries. (Reuters, May 27, 2026; NPR, June 1, 2026; WHO, June 8, 2026; WHO, June 12, 2026)

POWER, ELECTIONS AND CLAN POLITICS COLLIDE IN MOGADISHU
In Somalia's capital of Mogadishu, tensions over delays in elections erupted into fierce clashes between government troops and militias allied with the country's opposition parties, with heavy gunfire in crowded civilian areas. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term in office was scheduled to end on May 15th but was extended by a year – a move Mohamud's opposition claims is unconstitutional. Opposing political forces have called for protests in response. Both the United Nations and the United States have issued calls for restraint.

The clashes are part of a larger political contest. Mohamud has been attempting to replace a system in which clan elders choose Members of Parliament, who in turn select a president. The opposition, however, disagrees on how direct elections should be conducted and has rejected a constitutional amendment passed in March extending the presidency by a year. (The Guardian, June 4, 2026; Associated Press, June 4, 2026; BBC, June 4, 2026)

ETHIOPIA'S SEARCH FOR A SEA OUTLET MEETS REGIONAL RESISTANCE
Ethiopia has accused Cairo of attempting to "obstruct" its efforts to secure access to the Red Sea, following the recent signing of agreements between Egypt and Eritrea. The agreements included a "cooperation agreement on maritime transport and the establishment of a shipping line linking Egyptian and Eritrean ports via the Red Sea," according to Egypt's Foreign Ministry. Ethiopia and Eritrea have been at odds since the latter's secession in 1991. Ethiopia has sought a permanent foothold on the Red Sea for years, including through a controversial memorandum of understanding signed in 2024 with Somaliland granting access to the port of Berbera in exchange for potentially recognizing the region's independence from Somalia. The stalled deal has been condemned by Somalia.

Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos met Secretary of State Marco Rubio back in May in a bid to reinforce ties with the Trump administration following reports that Washington is considering a potential reset of ties with Eritrea. Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a protracted dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Addis Ababa has constructed on the Blue Nile, the Nile River's main tributary. Cairo argues that the dam threatens downstream Nile flows, which Egypt relies on for more than 90% of its water. (Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2026; Al-Monitor, May 21, 2026)

SHARP CUTS PLANNED TO AFRICAN CONSULAR SERVICES
In coming weeks, the State Department plans to reduce the number of U.S. embassies and consulates in Africa that can process visas for foreigners seeking to come to the United States from almost 50 down to 20 regional "hubs." The change comes in conjunction with the Trump administration's efforts to limit immigration to the U.S. and crack down on visitors who overstay temporary visas. The U.S. has already reduced visa applications from Africa through a travel ban on certain countries, as well as a new requirement for applicants to post large bonds. Under the new plans, a citizen of a non-hub country wishing to apply will have to travel to one of the 20 sites, which could pose significant travel challenges and costs. (Associated Press, June 1, 2026; Newsweek, June 2, 2026)