Eurasia Security Watch: No. 149

FATAH RESURGENT?
The Palestinian Authority’s beleaguered Fatah faction, on the political defensive since the surprise electoral victory of the radical Hamas movement in January 2006, could be showing new signs of life. In recent weeks, the nationalist political party has won resounding electoral victories in student council elections in two of the Palestinian Authority’s most influential outposts of student activism: Al-Quds University in east Jerusalem and Bethlehem University in the West Bank. Observers say that the strong showing suggests a resurgence in Fatah’s popularity – and a decline in Hamas’ - among young Palestinians. (Bethlehem Ma’an, April 25 and May 1, 2007)

A TRAITOR IN THE RANKS
Even as the conclusions of the long-awaited Winograd Commission report – which contains a scathing critique of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s handling of the summer 2006 war in Lebanon – continue to reverberate in Israel, the country is poised on the precipice of another high-profile political scandal. Israel’s security agency, the Shin Bet, has disclosed that controversial former parliamentarian Azmi Bishara is under investigation for treason.

The charges against Bishara, previously the chairman of the country’s “Balad” party, include spying for the Hezbollah terrorist organization during last year’s conflict. Among the information allegedly relayed by Bishara to the Shi’ite militia were intelligence assessments and targeting information that allowed the group to "deepen their strikes against Israel," Israeli law enforcement officials say. (Jerusalem Post, May 2, 2007)

A NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE IN THE CAUCASUS
U.S. officials are expressing growing concern over the state of nuclear security in the “post-Soviet space.” According to recently-released Department of Homeland Security estimates, incidents of nuclear smuggling in the former Soviet Union have doubled since the early 1990s, and now average some 200 a year. An area of particular concern is the Caucasus, with most incidents taking place in Georgia. The threat, observers say, is perpetuated by insufficient safeguards on radiological and nuclear materials, and by endemic corruption and lawlessness among the countries of the region. (London Jane’s Intelligence Review, May 1, 2007)

REINFORCEMENTS FOR AL-QAEDA
A new union of radical Islamist forces is bolstering the capabilities of the al-Qaeda terrorist network in Iraq. Three of Iraq’s most powerful insurgent groups – the Islamic Army in Iraq, the Mujahideen Army, and the Sharia Committee, an offshoot of Ansar al-Sunna – have formed a new political and strategic front in recent days. “The group's aim is to continue the resistance in Iraq and throw out the occupiers but at the same time to restate that Jihadi operations will strike the occupiers and their agents and not innocent civilians whom we should protect," the new bloc, known as the Jihad and Reform Front, has announced in its foundational document, which was posted on various jihadist websites in recent days. (Rome AKI, May 3, 2007)

A NEW VISION OF THE SYRIAN MILITARY
The regime in Damascus has launched a major expansion of its military forces. As part of a new legislative decree recently issued by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, Syria will transition from its current mixed conscript/volunteer military force to mandatory service in the armed forces for all eligible Syrian nationals. The plan also entails a reconfiguration of the country’s military reserve base, with terms of service reduced from six to five years for those called up by the government. The move is expected to substantially bolster the ranks of the Syrian military, which at some 300,000, is already estimated to be the world’s 16th largest. (Damascus SANA, May 5, 2007)