THE RISE OF "HAMASTAN"
The Palestinian Authority's ruling Hamas movement has succeeded in carrying out a hostile takeover of the Gaza Strip. In mid-June, intermittent fighting between the radical Islamist group and its ousted nationalist opposition, the Fatah party, escalated into all-out civil war, with Hamas quickly gaining the upper hand and overrunning Fatah installations. Following an unsuccessful counterattack, embattled Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has formally dissolved his government and declared a state of emergency in the Palestinian Territories. Hamas, for its part, has wasted no time consolidating power, forming a new police council and arresting and executing senior Fatah officials.
The government of Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert has been quick to say that it "will not interfere" in Gaza, at least for now. However, observers say the events taking place there herald a sea-change in Palestinian politics. "Hamas' seizure of the Gaza Strip opens a new period in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Middle East in general," writes Barry Rubin of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel. "A new Islamist state is being established and it bodes no good for Western interests or regional stability." (Ramallah Ma'an, June 14, 15 and 16, 2007; London Guardian, June 14, 2007; Tel Aviv Yediot Ahronot, June 14 and 15, 2007; gloria.idc.ac.il, June 18, 2007)
SAUDI COUNTERTERRORISM IN THE AGE OF THE INTERNET
As part of a crackdown on al-Qaeda’s Internet operations, Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry has apprehended three suspected leaders of the terrorist group’s popular online publications. Among those reportedly apprehended were the publishers of “Echoes of Jihad,” an online jihadist magazine, and al-Qaeda web mouthpiece “Voice of Jihad.” The third suspect is believed to be an administrator of the “Eklhass” forum, “an online, password-protected chat room… described ‘as one of the leading jihadist message boards.’” (United Press International, June 15, 2007)
TURKEY STEPS AWAY FROM THE ESDP
With Turkey’s prospects for entry into the European Union growing less certain by the day, Europe is beginning to feel a backlash from a frustrated Ankara. On June 4th, the NATO member state withdrew its pledge to contribute “a significant pledge of land, naval and air components” to the EU’s rapid-reaction forces, which Brussels had hoped would be assembled by 2010 as part of its prospective collective defense policy. Historically, both Turkey and Norway – neither of whom are members of the EU – have enjoyed a “special military relationship” with the Continental bloc. But while the latter has embraced European security and defense policy (ESDP) initiatives, Turkey has begun to pull away from joint military projects with the EU. A source close to the Turkish General staff has signaled that the turnaround is a “political statement Turkey is making about the state of its relations with the EU.” (Defense News, June 18, 2007)
THE SYRIAN-IRANIAN SYMBIOSIS
The relationship between Syria and Iran has grown far deeper than the simple “marriage of convenience” portrayed by some analysts, according to a recent report by the United States Institute of Peace. The fellow rogues have had a de facto political and economic alliance since the late 1970s, but today the partnership between Damascus and Tehran is deepening, buoyed by a growing convergence of interests in places like Iran, says the study, entitled Syria’s Alliance with Iran. As a result, the report concludes, “[e]fforts to drive a ‘wedge’ between [them] are unlikely to be successful under the current circumstances.” Indeed, “far more binds the two allies than pulls them apart,” and without a “significant investment of diplomatic (and likely financial) capital” there will be little chance to exploit tensions in the relationship - such as the distrust among their respective populations, Syrian anti-Shiite sentiment, and the fear that one will “sell out” the other in order to “cut a deal” with the West. (United States Institute of Peace, May 2007)
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