Eurasia Security Watch: No. 156

THE "AXIS" VICTORIOUS?
Just five years after President Bush first used the term, the "Axis of Evil" has persevered over the United States and its Coalition allies. So says one Russian observer, who believes the newest round of talks between Washington and Tehran marks the final nail in the coffin of a robust U.S. policy toward Iran, Iraq and North Korea. "George W. Bush, whose term expires in January 2009, will be remembered for his challenge to those countries and the consequences that ensued," writes RIA Novosti political commentator Dmitry Kosyrev. "Iraq is occupied, but it has buried America's hopes of ruling the world. North Korea has simply made a deal with the United States and got what it wanted. Now Iran is following suit, having subjected Washington (and others) to exhausting diplomacy for months." The result, according to Kosyrev, is that "the axis has won, not three to zero, but 2.5 to 0.5. Small wonder then that the expression has gone out of circulation." (Moscow RIA Novosti, July 25, 2007)

A NEW COMPETITOR FOR MUSLIM “HEARTS AND MINDS”
Taking advantage of the political chaos in Pakistan, Tablighi Jamaat, South Asia’s largest Islamist “missionary group,” has begun penetrating into the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Tablighi, which styles itself as an apolitical movement dedicated to spiritual revival, is already under tight scrutiny – and restrictions – in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikstan, and has yet to penetrate into isolated Turkmenistan. In Kyrgyzstan however, the movement’s considerable inroads have begun to raise concerns among government officials, who term its estimated10,000 members to be “uneducated and very fanatical.” Policymakers in Bishkek now say that Tablighi’s ostensibly non-violent creed could be serving as a cover for the export of more radical Pakistani jihadi ideologies. (eurasianet.org, July 23, 2007)

IN JERUSALEM, ANOTHER VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is responsible for "intolerable" failures in safeguarding the Israeli citizenry during the country's war with the Hezbollah terrorist organization last summer, a new report from Israel's top budgetary officer has found. The study, conducted by State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss for the Israeli Knesset as part of the nation’s post-mortem on the July-August 2006 conflict, faults Olmert's government and military leaders for glaring failures "in the decision-making process, their assessment, and their treatment of the home front during the Lebanon war." "The leaders of the country invested most of their time in the war efforts, and not in treating the home front which was exposed to extensive attack from the outset of the war," according to Lindenstrauss' assessment. These failures, the report concludes, "reached intolerable levels." (Agence France Presse, July 18, 2007)

[Editor's Note: The Lindenstrauss report only serves to reinforce the conclusions of the Winograd Commission, a collection of experts convened by the Israeli government in response to political pressure after last summer's conflict. The Commission's interim findings, released on April 30th, faulted the Olmert government for major gaps in command authority and responsibility, poor communication between the country's political and military leaderships, and a lack of combat adaptability on the part of the Israeli Defense Forces.]

TOWARD A CENTRAL ASIAN DEFINITION OF TERRORISM
In a major step forward for regional counterterrorism efforts, the member nations of Central Asia's premier security bloc have standardized their respective terrorism lists. At a recent meeting in Bishkek, representatives of the six member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) reportedly formulated a consolidated list of extremist organizations to be banned. Among the groups outlawed are al-Qaeda, the powerful Muslim Brotherhood organization, the Kashmiri separatist group Lashkar e-Taiba, and Hezb ut-Tahrir, the controversial Islamist grassroots movement that advocates for the imposition of sharia law in much of the "post-Soviet space." In all, SCO member states agreed to outlaw 17 organizations – marking the first time that a consolidated terrorism list similar to that of the United States or the European Union has ever been formulated in Eurasia. (eurasianet.org, July 25, 2007)