Eurasia Security Watch: No. 161

SECOND THOUGHTS IN GAZA
Some four months after its hostile takeover of the Gaza Strip, at least some members of Hamas seem to be rethinking their movement’s power grab in the Palestinian Territories. According to Ghazi Hamad, a former Hamas spokesman and frequent media commentator, Hamas’ seizure represented both a “grave strategic mistake” and a “trap” of the group’s own making. "Instead of expanding its relations with the Arab and international community... (Hamas) has become isolated and besieged in the narrow strip," Hamad has chided in a confidential letter sent to the organization’s leadership. (Reuters, October 20, 2007)

NEW INTEREST IN NUCLEAR POWER
Iran’s nuclear advances have begun to catalyze growing interest in atomic capabilities among the countries of the region. The most recent addition to the club of nuclear aspirants is Turkey, where Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made acquisition of atomic energy one of his government’s top priorities. The Turkish government currently plans to build two nuclear power stations by 2015. "Nuclear energy is not an option. It is a necessity,” Energy Minister Hilmi Guler has explained. “Turkey is a strong state and has to be strong in nuclear energy as well."

Turkey is not alone. The Egyptian government has announced plans to move ahead with the construction of a number of nuclear power stations in order to achieve greater “energy security.” The move marks a dramatic expansion of the government’s original plan, unveiled last year, to build one civilian reactor as part of a resuscitation of the country’s moribund nuclear activities. (Zurich ISN Security Watch, October 15, 2007; London BBC, October 29, 2007)

A WARNING FROM HEZBOLLAH
Rumors of American plans for a more permanent military presence in the Levant are causing consternation in Lebanon. In recent weeks, senior U.S. defense officials have held consultations with officials in the Lebanese government, fueling speculation that Washington may want to establish a long-term military base on Israel’s northern border. Now, members of the country’s most powerful Islamist militia are lashing out. "It is impossible to accept such a project,” one Hezbollah official has warned. “American soldiers on Lebanese soil will be considered an occupation force and will be treated as such." Militia leaders are also warning that the possible move is part of a larger American conspiracy to dominate the Middle Eastern nation. "The Lebanese, who have seen the American failure in Iraq... must be aware that what the administration of President Bush is aiming at is something else other than supporting the Lebanese army," Hussein Fadlallah, Hezbollah’s spiritual leader, has cautioned in a written statement. (Associated Press, October 21, 2007; Agence France Presse, October 22, 2007)

THE KAZAKH NAVY COMES OF AGE
The oil-rich Central Asian republic of Kazakhstan is ramping up its presence in the Caspian Sea. According to Defense Minister Danial Akhmetov, the government of Nursultan Nazarbayev plans to build up its country’s naval capabilities as part of efforts to safeguard its share of Caspian energy. “We are beginning to develop our navy for the first time,” Akhmetov said in a late-October interview with the Reuters news agency. “Of course it’s very costly but given that Kazakhstan is home to serious oil resources in the Caspian Sea, [but] it is our duty... to create a stable and calm environment.” (Reuters, October 24, 2007)