[Editor’s Note: Beginning with our next issue, AFPC Research Fellow Jeff Smith will assume the full editorship of the Eurasia Security Watch.]
HAMAS’ FRACTURED FUTURE
Hamas’ hostile takeover of the Gaza Strip earlier this year widened the cleavage between the popular Islamist movement and its secular alternative, Fatah. Now, however, Hamas appears to be facing a new challenge, this time from within. In recent weeks, a more “moderate” wing of the party based in the West Bank has stepped up criticism of the main Hamas faction in Gaza. The topic at issue? Threats from Hamas hard-liners in Gaza to overthrow the Fatah-led government now ensconced in the West Bank. The rift bespeaks a larger malaise now plaguing the Islamist movement; relations between Hamas leaders are said to have reached a “boiling point,” even as some traditional supporters in the Arab world could also be considering downgrading their links to the terrorist group. (Jerusalem Post, November 5, 2007).
PLANNING FOR CONFLICT IN THE GULF
As the crisis over Iran’s nuclear ambitions continues to deepen, Iran’s neighbors in the Persian Gulf are bracing for the worst. Officials in Kuwait are drawing up a comprehensive domestic and national security strategy in anticipation of a Western conflict with the Islamic Republic. "The situation in the region is boiling, which requires setting plans to protect the homeland against any danger," says Interior Minister Sheikh Jaber Khaled al-Sabah.
Kuwait is not alone. The region’s premier security bloc, the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, is also preparing for potential hostilities. Experts say that GCC countries are increasingly pursuing a “unified military strategy” – one that includes potential Gulf retaliation against Iran with “superior air and naval assets” should Tehran make good on its threats to target U.S. facilities and allies in the region. (Defense News, November 5, 2007; Reuters, November 14, 2007)
JORDAN’S MUSLIM OPPOSITION LOSES GROUND
Jordan’s latest parliamentary elections have ended badly for the country’s main Islamist movement. In the elections for Jordan’s 110-seat Chamber of Deputies, held on November 20th, parties allied with the regime of King Abdullah soundly trounced opponents from the Islamic Action Front, the Jordanian offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Candidates and tribes loyal to the king cut into the gains made by Islamists five years ago, when the IAF secured 17 parliamentary seats, to a mere seven. (Agence France Presse, November 21, 2007; Reuters, November 25, 2007)
GUARDING THE KINGDOM’S OIL
The House of Saud is revamping its energy security apparatus. The Saudi government has reportedly introduced a new special rapid reaction force tasked with protecting the Kingdom's energy installations. The 9,000-man force, assembled with American and British assistance, will operate independent of other state security forces. Over the next three to four years, moreover, it is expected to nearly triple in size, to 25,000, in a bid by Riyadh to provide better protection to its most valuable export.
The focus is logical, experts say. Al-Qaeda already targeted Abqaiq, the world's largest oil processing plant, back in February 2006, and Osama bin Laden has called for future attacks against Saudi oil giant Aramco. (London Guardian, November 16, 2007)
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