Eurasia Security Watch: No. 166

Related Categories: Islamic Extremism; Iraq; Middle East

A SHAKE-UP IN HEZBOLLAH’S LEADERSHIP
Hassan Nasrallah, the fiery leader of Lebanon’s Iranian-sponsored Shi’ite terrorist group, Hezbollah, has reportedly been demoted by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Sources say the Iranian leader apparently stripped Nasrallah of his title as commander in chief of the group’s military wing as early as August, although he has since remained its party secretary. The move follows a public rift between Nasrallah and the party's Deputy Leader, Shaykh Na'im Qasim. Qasim, favored by Tehran, is said to have succeeded Nasrallah to the group’s top military post.

The change is part of an effort by Tehran to restructure its Lebanese proxy with an infusion of cash – some $1 billion over the past year and a half – and a shake-up of the party’s military and intelligence wings. Not everything has changed in Hezbollah, however; Imad Mugniyeh, architect of the 1983 Beirut bombing which killed nearly 250 U.S. Marines, will remain in charge of security coordination between Hezbollah, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, and affiliated Palestinian groups. (London Al-Sharq al-Awsat, December 13, 2007)

NAJAF RISING
Iraq’s southern city of Najaf is making steady progress in its journey to reclaim the title as the holiest city in Shi’ite Islam. Decades of Sunni repression forced Iraq’s Shi’ites to cede religious leadership to neighboring Iran and its most important religious center, Qom. But the Shi’ite revival underway in southern Iraq – ironically funded in large part by Iran – is drawing pilgrims from across the world to Najaf, and boosting the authority of the city’s clerics.

The city is taking on an increasingly political role as well. Run by the country’s largest Shi’ite party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Najaf is poised to dominate any Shi’ite autonomous region that may emerge if the country is ever divided. Its governor, Asaad Abu Gulal, insists that “Basra may be the commercial capital, but... we have the political leadership, and we have the religious authority.” Local officials, meanwhile, are encouraging these trends. “We want to make Najaf self-sufficient so that it would not have to depend on Baghdad,” says Abu Gulal. (New York Times, December 16, 2007)

FAROUQ SHARAA’S FAUX PAS
In remarks sure to inflame the already strained relationship between Damascus and Riyadh, Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa took an ill-advised jab at the Saudi royal family while speaking with a major Arab daily in early December. Saudi-Syrian relations appeared to be warming, with the latter agreeing to attend the Israeli-Palestinian peace conference in Annapolis in a move seen by many as a concession to the Saudis. But Sharaa’s most recent comments, in which he suggested that the Saudi Kingdom feared a division of Iraq because it “would place the oil wells outside of the areas governed by the ruling Saudi family,” has ruffled more than a few feathers in Riyadh, which is concerned over the security of its oil rich regions, given the restive Shi’ite population that inhabits the country’s east. (London Al-Quds al-Arabi, December 17, 2007)

SURPRISING SENTIMENTS IN SAUDI ARABIA
A new poll of public opinion in the historically-isolated Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has yielded some interesting, and unexpected, results. The survey of over 1,000 Saudi nationals, carried out by the non-profit group Terror Free Tomorrow found that just ten to fifteen percent of those polled hold favorable views of al-Qaeda and bin Laden, respectively – surprisingly low in the birthplace of the al-Qaeda chief and of Wahhabi Islam itself. However, the most striking were the Saudi responses to questions about America: forty percent of respondents – far higher than in other U.S. allies in the region – viewed America favorably, and fully 69 percent supported close ties between Riyadh and Washington. (CNN, December 18, 2007)