Eurasia Security Watch: No. 169

A STEP TOWARD RECONCILIATION IN IRAQ
In a move long awaited by the Bush administration, Iraq’s Shiite-led parliament has passed legislation welcoming former members of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath party back into public life. Banned from government service in the first days of Paul Bremer’s Coalition Provisional Authority, former Ba’athists have comprised a disproportionate share of the Sunni-led insurgency since 2003. The new “Justice and Accountability Law” will open the door for lower-level party members to return to government posts (after vetting by a seven-member committee) as well as reinstate pensions to a handful of senior Ba’athists – both dubbed “key legislative benchmarks” in Washington. Sunni critics have faulted the law for not pressing reconciliation far enough, but Saleem Abdullah, a parliamentarian from the powerful Sunni Accordance Front, admits “this law [is] a correction of previously made mistakes.” (McClatchy, January 12, 2008)

NEW NUCLEAR JITTERS IN CENTRAL ASIA
Late last year, border guards in the former Soviet republic of Uzbekistan uncovered Cesium-137 – a dangerous radioactive isotope powder produced by nuclear reactors and weapons testing – aboard a freight train bound for Iran. At the time, Tashkent ordered the train sent back to Kyrgyzstan, its point of origin, and the event was quickly papered over. Now, however, the IAEA is seeking answers from Bishkek; not least because Cesium “would be a favored substance of terrorists seeking to build a radiological ‘dirty bomb,’” or launch what U.S. nuclear proliferation expert Peter Zimmerman terms an “I-cube attack” involving the ingestion, inhalation or immersion of the radioactive material.

Zimmerman concedes that the presence of the material – which is also used in medical devices – was most likely a benign mistake. But the event highlights the danger posed by the poorly-secured nuclear materials in Kyrgyzstan and neighboring Tajikistan, where nine of ten “dumps of radioactive materials” remain inadequately protected. (eurasianet.org, January 16, 2008)

DRESSING UP IN TAJIKISTAN
The Islamic University of Tajikistan has a new dress code. Gone are the headscarves, hijabs, and long beards; students and teachers will now be forced to don suits, ties, and official uniforms, according to a decree by Abdujabbor Rahmonov, the country’s education minister. Rahmonov has been waging a campaign against “unsanctioned religious practices” – he has called the hijab “foreign culture for Tajiks” – which has included the bulldozing of illegal mosques and state testing for religious preachers. Some 300 of these unregistered mosques were closed in 2007 alone, and authorities are now warning another 350 mosques in Sughd Province that they must obtain a state license or face the same fate. (eurasianet.org, January 18, 2008)

AN OMINOUS WARNING IN LEBANON
Walid Jumblatt, the powerful head of Lebanon’s Druze community, has implicated Syria in a series of political assassinations in his country, and publicly warned that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is preparing the ground for a second war with Israel. In comments to the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television channel, Jumblatt called upon Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to embrace “the fundamentals of dialogue.” But the Druze leader also implicated Iran in Lebanon’s ills, warning of the “diabolical cycle” of terrorism supported by Damascus and Tehran. Jumblatt’s greatest concern, however, was that Hezbollah would again drag his war-torn country into another unprovoked war with Israel: “The fear is that… there are preparations for a new war, possibly similar to the 2006 war, through some preemptive (action).” (Beirut Al-Nahar, January 25, 2008)