Eurasia Security Watch: No. 174

AL QAEDA’S RESURGENCE IN YEMEN
The al-Qaeda terror network is reportedly working to consolidate and expand its presence in Yemen under one of bin Laden’s original “secretaries.” Nair al Wahayshi – a bin Laden confidant from the Afghan-Soviet war of the 1980s – is busy implementing a new, “no-holds-barred” approach to jihad in Yemen. Yemen received al Wahayshi via extradition from Iran in 2003, before the jihadist staged an audacious 23-man escape from a Sanaa prison in 2006. Since then, Wahayshi has rallied al-Qaeda in Yemen’s “second generation” into a “more strident, better organized and more ambitious [group] than it has ever been before.” (Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Focus, March 18, 2008)

SYRIA’S KURDS ON EDGE
The killing of three Kurdish civilians during celebration of the Kurdish New Year has heightened ethnic tensions in Syria, where Kurds have been marginalized for decades. At 10 percent of the population, Syria’s Kurdish minority should be too large to ignore; yet that is exactly what the government in Damascus has tried to do. Following a national census in the 1960s, Syria “stripped some 20% of the Kurds of their citizenship in an effort to Arabize the population.” To quell any potential unrest in the wake of the killings, Syria has now deployed 10,000 troops to its Kurdish-dominated north. (Jerusalem Post, March 23, 2008)

A NEW NUCLEAR CLIENT FOR MOSCOW?
Egypt has granted Russia permission to bid on the contracts for up to four planned nuclear power stations. The potentially lucrative agreement would provide a boost to Russia’s nuclear sector and further expand the Kremlin’s influence in the region. Vladimir Putin’s personal visit to Egypt to sign the deal looked like a bid to do just that; the Russian president is lobbying to host his own Moscow peace conference to mirror Washington’s Annapolis conference. “Taking into account growing Israeli-Palestinian tensions, we believe there is a need for a mediatory role from Egypt and Russia,” Mr. Putin has said. (Doha Al-Jazeera, March 25, 2008)

THE BATTLE FOR BASRA
Nouri al-Maliki’s sudden late March clampdown on Shi’ite militias has opened up a new front in the struggle for power in the former Ba’athist state. On March 23rd, the Iraqi prime minister ordered a major assault on the Mahdi Army of firebrand cleric Moqtada Sadr in Basra, the country’s wealthiest, and second largest, city. The results of the offensive are still inconclusive; despite a week of heavy fighting and more than 500 casualties, Sadr’s forces remain active - and defiant. Maliki is sticking to his political guns, however. His goal? An outright end to the powerful Shi’ite militia. "Solving the problem comes in no other way than dissolving the Mehdi Army," the Iraqi premier has told CNN. "They no longer have a right to participate in the political process or take part in the upcoming elections unless they end the Mehdi Army." (Reuters, April 7, 2008)

A CONSTITUTIONAL SHOWDOWN IN TURKEY
Turkey may be facing its most serious political crisis in nearly two decades now that the country’s Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case that challenges the constitutional legality of the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP). The case arises from a 162-page indictment filed against the AKP by the chief prosecutor of the country’s Supreme Court of Appeals, which accuses the Islamist political party of “anti-secular activities.” The move reflects growing concern among Turkey’s secular establishment – still dominant in the courts and military – over the AKP’s moves to gradually Islamicize Turkish society, highlighted by the recent removal of a ban on Muslim headscarves in public universities.

The stakes in the case are high. Seventy-one members of the AKP, including the Prime Minister and President, could be subject to an outright ban on political activity, and many Turks fear the constitutional deadlock – which could drag on for over a year – could lead to a prolonged period of political and economic stability, damaging the nation’s chances for eventual EU membership. (Christian Science Monitor, April 4, 2008)