Eurasia Security Watch: No. 175

SYRIA’S CYBER-CRACKDOWN
A fresh government crackdown on Internet users, bloggers, and internet cafés, has reminded Syrians why their country was named the region’s “biggest prison for cyber-dissidents” in 2006 by Reporters Without Borders, a non-profit media- and human-rights monitor. The latest wave of digital oppression includes a blockade on some 153 websites, including popular hotspots like YouTube, Facebook, and Google, as well as the sites of regional newspapers. More troubling for Syria’s 1 million internet users, however, are steps by the security forces to translate their virtual crackdown to the real world: internet cafés have been ordered to keep detailed records of their customers and have begun locking up bloggers for “defaming state institutions.” (London Al-Sharq al-Awsat, March 26, 2008)

JORDAN’S MILITARY GESTURE
By the end of the year, no one in the region will accuse Jordan of not sharing. When the King Abdullah Special Operations Training Center (KASOTC) is completed sometime this year, Jordan will open its facilities to allied counterterrorism units “regardless of their religion, language, or any political background.” This was the message Jordan’s Special Operations Forces commander, Maj. Gen. Jamal al-Shawabkeh, told a conference of his counterparts in late March. Shawabkeh, head of Jordan’s first anti-terrorism team dating back to the 1970s, declared that with the latest technologies, Jordan was equipped to defend against terror organizations and “bring those ill-minded to justice to have justice brought to them.” (Defense News, March 31, 2008)

AKP MOUNTS CONSTITUTIONAL DEFENSE
Reeling from a constitutional challenge to its very existence by Turkey’s secular establishment, the ruling Islamist-oriented Justice and Development (AK) Party has decided to blunt the attack by introducing a series of constitutional amendments that could undermine the legal offensive it faces. The main targets of the AKP’s reform package are articles 68 and 69 of the Turkish constitution; their proposed revision would make it harder to disband political parties in Turkey. To gain broad support, the party will fold this legislation into a broader “mini democracy package” that could garner the support of the opposition MHP (by stripping legislators of legal immunity) and the European Union (by creating a government ombudsman and revising a controversial law against insulting “Turkishness”). (Istanbul Zaman, April 3, 2008)

CENTRAL ASIA AND NATO: HEDGING BETS
With all the attention focused on missile defense, Afghanistan troop commitments, and Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia, the appearance of two Central Asian leaders at the latest NATO summit in Bucharest went virtually unnoticed in the press. The significance was not lost, however, on the West and Russia. The “historic” presence of Uzbek president Islam Karimov and his Turkmen counterpart, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, highlighted a trend that has seen the former Soviet republics move to hedge against their traditional dependence on Moscow by testing new linkages with the West. The pair spoke warmly about increased cooperation with NATO and talks touched on an envisioned land route which would shuttle supplies through the region to coalition forces in Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan. Matthew Clements of Jane’s Information Group, noted the mere presence of the Turkmen leader – who spoke directly with President Bush about the proposed “Nabucco” natural gas pipeline -- was “extremely significant,” given the isolationist policies of his predecessor. (Radio Free Europe, April 4, 2008)

ENERGY, INTERESTS BIND GULF AND CHINA
This spring, the world’s fastest growing energy consumer and the highest producing energy region are drawing closer to one another. Binding China with the Gulf states is “mutual self-interest,” as business leaders from across the Gulf will be shuttling to Beijing this spring. Aside from the energy bond, the weakening dollar – and rising yuan – is making Chinese investments more attractive to the Gulf. JPMorgan Securities of Hong Kong notices a “virtuous circle of trade and investment growth” between China and the oil producers, while David Rubenstein of the Carlyle Group believes: “the economic centre of the world is beginning to shift from the US and Europe to the Middle East and Asia.” (Financial Times, April 8, 2008)