Eurasia Security Watch: No. 183

HUT MAKES INROADS IN GAZA
Hizb ut-Tahrir, a shadowy Islamist organization that has been winning followers and worrying governments across Eurasia for years now appears to be making its first substantive inroads in the Palestinian territories. Despite being founded in Jerusalem in 1952, the movement – which seeks the re-establishment of the Islamic Caliphate – held its first official rally in the Gaza strip in late July, attracting some 3,000 followers to its march. Though its official platform shuns both violence and politics, governments from Europe to the Gulf suspect it of radicalizing young followers and have officially banned the group. As an ideological competitor, Hizb ut-Tahrir’s initial welcome from Hamas – the Islamist group that rules the Gaza strip -- was cool. Yet as the approved demonstration shows, that may be changing. Noteworthy is that the Gaza rally stands in stark contrast to events in the West Bank, where Hamas’ secular rival, Fatah, maintains staunch opposition to the group – and in doing so perhaps tempting Hamas to take a more flexible approach. (Middle East Times, August 4, 2008)

A WELCOME VISIT FOR IRAQ
The remarkable military progress the “surge” has secured in Iraq appears to be building much-needed momentum in political realm as well. In an unannounced visit August 11, Jordan’s King Abdullah II became the first Arab leader to visit Iraq, bringing with him statements of support for Prime Minister’s Nouri al-Maliki’s government and a plea to his Arab brethren to “extend their hand to Iraq.” Perhaps most importantly, Jordan has announced it will do something a number of Arab governments have wrestled with for years now: it will send an ambassador to Iraq. (New York Sun, August 11, 2008)

[Editor’s note: Finding consensus on constitutional issues such as revenue sharing and regional autonomy remain Baghdad’s most pressing concern, but trailing not far behind is the burning to desire to gain recognition and support from its Sunni Arab neighbors. Despite America’s incessant urging, the Gulf Arabs have stubbornly resisted reaching out to Nouri al Maliki’s government – suspicious of its Shiite/Iranian sympathies. The Sunni Arabs finally began inching toward conciliation with Baghdad after Maliki’s crackdown on Shiite militias earlier this year; King Abdullah’s visit, and the naming of an ambassador, may be prove to finally nudge them into Baghdad’s camp.]

GEORGIA-RUSSIA CONFLICT: AN AZERI PERSPECTIVE
The Russian-Georgian conflict over the separatist territory of South Ossetia has consumed international headlines since its start in early August. But while all eyes were focused on the American and European responses to Russian aggression, few have cared to ask what Russia’s invasion has meant to Georgia’s neighbors – particularly Azerbaijan. Baku’s stakes in the conflict are high, with its own frozen conflict to worry about (Nagarno-Karabkh) and its economic lifelines (a handful of oil and gas pipelines) exposed in Georgia. While the Azeri public clearly sympathizes with Georgia – as evidenced through public demonstrations of unity with Tbilisi– the government has been diplomatically silent on the conflict, officially supporting the “status quo.” Not so for the opposition Musavat Party, who insisted Georgia was “being punished for its NATO aspirations and its democratic choice.” (Eurasianet.org, August 14, 2008)

GEORGIA-RUSSIA CONFLICT: A TURKISH PERSPECTIVE
Azerbaijan is not the only neighbor deeply concerned about Russia’s moves. In Turkey, an op-ed carried by the AKP-friendly Zaman newspaper defended Georgia, calling Saakashvili’s initial incursion into South Ossetia an “appropriate action at the international level.” It added “his intention was seemingly to maintain his country’s sovereignty over its territory and… to assert [Georgia’s] independence from the regional wannabe hegemon.” In unusually harsh language, the piece evoked visions of “Russia’s expansionist heritage” and praised Saakashvili for his desire to “break the curse of this ghost of serfdom [to Moscow].” (Istanbul Zaman, August 18, 2008)

[Editor’s Note: Though Russia is Turkey’s largest trading partner, Ankara has some $600 million invested in Georgia, and a much larger interest in maintaining the integrity of the pipelines that run through it. It is also fiercely protective of Azerbaijan which, though Shiite, is ethnically Turkic. Russia has historically backed Armenia, Azerbaijan’s arch-enemy. At least one source (Strategic Forecasting) has reported that Russian military jets involved in bombing raids on Poti and Gori were based in Armenia.]