Eurasia Security Watch: No. 185

IT'S OFFICIAL: MAHDI ARMY DISBANDED
In a move that has been anticipated for months, Iraq’s most notorious Shi'ite cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, has officially and indefinitely suspended activities of his Mahdi Army militia. Sadr exploded onto the scene in 2004 when his Mahdi Army twice engaged U.S. forces in some of the fiercest fighting of the Iraq war, but has been put on the defensive in recent months by an aggressive campaign from Iraqi security forces, factionalizing within his followers, and Sadr’s own lengthy hiatus in Iran. “The Mahi Army suspension will be valid indefinitely,” read a statement issued by Sadr, who has renamed his militia the Al Mumahidun (Supporters of the Mahdi) and recast it as a “cultural and social organization” dedicated to building society. In a less promising sign, hundreds of Mahdi militiamen have renounced Sadr’s order, signing “blood-oaths” to continue the armed resistance. (Abu Dhabi The National, August 28, 2008; Agence France Presse, August 28, 2008)

AL-QAEDA UNDER PRESSURE IN ISRAEL...
A series of arrests in Israel have raised concerns that al-Qaeda’s ideology may be making headway among the small country’s Arab population. Six Israeli Arabs and East Jerusalem Palestinians now face “severe” charges for trying to apply and implement the movement’s ideology. Also last month, two Bedouins suspected of planning attacks on skyscrapers and military bases were arrested. All the suspects were active on al-Qaeda-linked online forums and websites. Experts believe al-Qaeda’s difficulties in penetrating the Palestinian Territories have prompted the organization to put a premium on finding homegrown sympathizers within Israel itself. (Jerusalem Post, August 24, 2008)

...AND THE GAZA STRIP
Those difficulties were recently put on full display in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas’ security forces detained a senior leader from Jaysh al-Ummah, an extremist group openly affiliated with al-Qaeda. The detainee, Abu Hafss, had criticized Hamas for failing to implement shariah law in the Gaza Strip since coming to power there in 2006. Shortly before Abu Hafss' arrest, Jaysh al-Ummah had held “armed training sessions” in the Gaza Strip. Despite their apparent similarities, al-Qaeda considers groups like Islamic Jihad and Hamas, which currently rules the Gaza Strip, as competitors and, in some cases, apostates. (Reuters, September 4, 2008)

THE BIN LADEN NETWORK VERSUS IRAN
Ayman al Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s chief ideologue, has released a new videotape assailing the Islamic Republic of Iran for the “Iranian-Crusade alliance.” Zawahiri asserts that Iran “allowed” the U.S. to invade Afghanistan and Iraq. The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, a close Iranian ally, also received rare and pointed criticism from al-Qaeda’s number two. Zawahiri mocked Nasrallah for annually celebrating Hezbollah’s “victory” in its 2006 war against Israel. “What victory? Retreating 30 miles backwards?” (Doha al-Jazeera, September 8, 2008)

[Editor’s note: Tensions between Iran and al Qaeda are not new, but it is worth tracking the ever-shifting sectarian allegiances within the Islamist movement. It was Zawahiri who publicly pleaded with al-Qaeda’s former lieutenant in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to scale back his siege against Iraq’s Shi'ites. And though Zawahiri had taken jabs at Iran in his infamous Internet question-and-answer session last year, bin Laden has stayed mum about the Islamic Republic. More interestingly, a series of recent reports from Afghanistan seem to confirm that Iran has indeed been assisting–passively or assertively–al-Qaeda’s Taliban allies in their fight against the Coalition. Not surprisingly then, in the rare circumstance that interviews with senior Taliban officials touch on the subject of Iran, the latter has been discussed in a positive light–a marked turnaround for a group once violently hostile to Afghanistan’s Shi’ites .]

CENTRAL ASIA STICKS BY NABUCCO
Europe’s deep and enduring dependence on Russia for energy supplies has led the continent into a frantic search for alternative gas and oil suppliers. That search appeared to take a step backwards with the Russian invasion of Georgia, a critical transit country in almost any non-Russian energy corridor scenario. However, perhaps the most ambitious of the non-Russian pipeline projects envisioned in recent years, the controversial Nabucco pipeline, has received an important show of support from two of the projects principal players. Designed to bring gas from eastern Turkey to central Europe, the U.S.-backed Nabucco pipeline “will work,” Turkey’s Energy Minister, Hilmi Guler, told participants at a “strategic cooperation conference” in Baku. “We will implement it.” Azerbaijan’s Industry and Energy Minister, Natiq Aliyev, agreed, insisting Nabucco was “a project that has a future.” Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have yet to firmly commit to supplying gas to the 3,300-kilometer pipeline, but the Russian invasion of Georgia appears, in the eyes of the International Crisis Group’s Charles Esser, to have created a “new political push for Nabucco.” (Radio Free Europe, September 10, 2008)