Eurasia Security Watch: No. 190

SYRIA AND LEBANON TRADE ACCUSATIONS
The substantial progress made between Lebanon and Syria on the diplomatic front in recent months is at risk of being overshadowed by a growing row over each side’s alleged support for Sunni militants operating across the shared border between the two countries. Sunni extremists, or Salafists, have made violent headlines in both countries in recent months - first in Lebanon in a bloody weeks-long gun-battle between the country's army and the radical group Fatah al-Islam, and more recently in Syria with a high-profile bombing in Damascus that killed seventeen. Lebanon has long accused Damascus of supporting various Salafist groups to undermine the Lebanese state, but Damascus has now decided to return fire. Syrian television recently aired a “confession” by the suspected Damascus bombers, admitting they had been financed by Lebanon’s Future Movement, a leader of the anti-Syria bloc in the Lebanese parliament and a staunch U.S. ally. (Financial Times, November 10, 2008)

[Editor’s Note: The jockeying threatens to undermine what had been an unprecedented political overture from Syria – extending full diplomatic recognition to Lebanon - after decades of treating Lebanon as a vassal state. However, since the bombing, Syria has moved some 10,000 troops to its border with Lebanon and is raising tensions with its accusations against the Future Movement. The dueling accusations appear contradictory, but are not necessarily untrue. Syria has and long and murky history of simultaneously supporting and battling Sunni extremists. And Salafists in the Levant are divided: some (localists) want to establish Sunni rule in Lebanon, and thus view Syria and Hezbollah as their primary enemy, while others (internationalists) view Syria and Hezbollah as potential allies in a greater struggle against Israel and the West.]

REPORT: U.S. AND ALLIES VULNERABLE IN THE GULF
A new report from the American Enterprise Institute argues that America’s strategic presence in the Middle East is insufficient to pursue of a policy of containment directed at the Islamic Republic of Iran. The report, titled “Can a Nuclear Iran be Contained or Deterred?”, notes that America's Persian Gulf allies, such as Bahrain and Qatar, which host some of the largest U.S. military bases in the region, "are vulnerable to attack or even rapid seizure in the event of hostilities."

Meanwhile, the remaining U.S. bases in the region, in countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Turkey, are subject to sensitive political restrictions. Many capitals, for instance, have insisted their territory not be used to facilitate a U.S. strike on Iran. And because none of America’s Gulf allies aside from Saudi Arabia enjoy “strategic depth,” “it is unclear whether the GCC states could contain [Iranian] aggression for long." The report concludes that, “[i]f U.S. forces are to contain the Islamic Republic, they will require basing not only in GCC countries, but also in Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia and the Caucasus.” (World Tribune, November 12, 2008)

RELIGIOUS AUTHORITIES TAKE A STAND AGAINST THE HEADSCARF
The government of Emomali Rahmon has gained an unlikely ally in its campaign to reverse the creeping Islamization of Tajik society. Dushanbe has been taking extraordinary measures in recent months – including a complete ban on the headscarf in schools and universities - to dull the influence of a growing Salafist following, whose advocacy of a strict interpretation of Islam and the application of sharia law has worried Tajik authorities. Now the country’s Council of Islamic Clerics has entered the debate, issuing a statement joined by the country’s Grand Mufti suggesting the hijab, or Islamic headscarf, was “foreign-made” and unsuitable for Tajik women. Instead, the Council urged Tajik women to embrace the traditional Tajik national “costume,” consisting of a knee-length dress and trousers. The Council, though close to the government, had until now remained above the fray over the wearing of the hijab.

A similar debate is taking place a thousand miles away. In Egypt, the controversy centers around the niqab, which unlike the hijab covers the face as well. There, the Minister for Religious Endowments has released a controversial book arguing that the niqab is “not Islamic” and pledging that he will “absolutely not allow the spread of the niqab culture in Egypt.” The book follows an announcement by the ministry that it would publish books that countered extremist interpretations of Islam and distribute them to mosques. (Radio Free Europe, November 9, 2008; Times of India, November 20, 2008)