Eurasia Security Watch: No. 196

IRAQI ELECTIONS ARE IN
With roughly 51 percent turnout, Iraq has successfully conducted its first elections since 2006, and the first of three rounds to take place this year. Deemed “free and fair” by election observers, the polling was relatively peaceful and initial reports suggest big gains for secular and nationalist parties at the expense of Islamists and federalists. The greatest election winner was undoubtedly Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Dawa party, which gained seats across eastern and southern Iraq, generally displacing members from the Supreme Council, a Shi'a Islamist party with close ties to Iran. Followers of Muqtada al-Sadr, running on a Shi'a Islamist-nationalist agenda, also did well in Bagdhad and the south.

In Sunni-dominated Anbar Province, where the political struggle threatened to spill over into violence, the incumbent Iraqi Islamic Party, which came to power when most Sunnis were still boycotting the polls, placed third behind the U.S.-backed Awakening movement and a coalition of secular and tribal leaders led by Saleh al-Mutlaq. The new, more representative distribution of power in Anbar at least temporarily eased political tensions in the province. The elections were held in 14 of 18 Iraqi provinces, with the Kurdish-dominated northern provinces scheduled to hold their own vote later this year. (Chicago Tribune, February 6, 2009)

[Editor’s Note: Maliki’s domination of the polls – particularly in Baghdad and Basra – was profound. Although his Dawa party is nominally Islamist, he led a secularist-nationalist campaign ticket, at one point barring religious symbols and images from being used in campaign materials. Consequently, parties with the strongest Islamist credentials, the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Supreme Council were the election’s biggest losers – by far. With the notable exception of Muqtada al-Sadr’s list, Iraqis showed a clear preference for secular-nationalist politicians, which will be congratulated in the U.S. and Iraq – and probably disparaged in Tehran. The fading Supreme Council was the latter’s closest ally in Iraq, and its now-defunct quest to carve out an autonomous Shi'a state in the oil-rich South was a tantalizing prospect for Tehran.]

AN IRANIAN REBUKED IN IRAQ
The Iraqi voters’ indirect rebuke to Iran was mirrored in an official protest from government officials there over Iran’s conduct during the elections. Iraqis were initially surprised to learn that Nasir Baghban, the Iranian consul in Basra, illegally tried to enter an Iraqi election center during the polling. Baghban, however, was “driven out” by Iraqi officials, according to a member of the Higher Independent Elections Commission. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry condemned Baghban’s behavior, calling it “unacceptable.” Several Iraqi MP’s mirrored that rebuke, rejecting the act as “interference in Iraqi affairs,” while Maysun al-Damluji, an Iraqi MP from Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi List, went a step further, insisting “Iran is not contented with violations against the Iraqi border, oil, and water… now [it] wants to directly interfere in the election results.” (London Al-Sharq al-Awsat, February 2, 2009)

KYRGYZ-TAJIK BORDER TENSIONS
The testy relationship between the Central Asian states of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is being further strained by demographics and an uncontrolled border. Within the twisting and blurry geography of the tri-border area (which also includes Uzbekistan), Kyrgyzstan is feeling increasingly threatened by a “creeping migration” of Tajiks into its territory. Partnered with a growing outflux of poor Kyrgyz, the migration patterns in place could turn the Kyrgyz nationality into a minority in some parts of their own country, heightening the prospects of separatism or ethnic violence. Scarce water resources, meanwhile, are exacerbating these trends, expanding the potential for violence along the border, which flared in separate instances in March and November of 2008. (Eurasianet.org February 2, 2009)

AN OPENING TO SYRIA?
The Obama administration appears to be working quickly to thaw relations with the regime in Damascus. According to Syrian Transport Minister Ya'rob Badr, President Obama has approved a rare authorization to sell Damascus plane parts to repair two of the Ba'athist regime's aging Boeing 747s. Until now, the parts had been denied as part of a package of trade sanctions placed on Syria for its destabilizing influence on Iraq and Lebanon.

The news comes amid signs of at least two other high profile diplomatic overtures. Two weeks ago, President Obama dispatched a congressional delegation to the Syrian capital, headed by Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, to discuss with leaders the best way to further ties between the two countries. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Howard Berman (D-CA), is planning a visit to the Syrian capital on February 17. (CBS, February 8, 2009)