Eurasia Security Watch: No. 197

TAJIKISTAN TEETERS...
A new report by the International Crisis Group paints a bleak picture of the economic and political state of Tajikistan. “Tajikistan: On the Road to Failure” assaults the regime of Emomali Rakhmonov for his resistance to necessary reforms, for intimidating political opponents, and for widespread corruption. Tajikistan’s litany of problems includes a poverty rate of some 70 percent, growing power shortages, and high unemployment rates. The latter is particularly troubling for this young country (the media age is only 21) and has sparked an exodus of migrant workers. So many Tajiks are now working in places like Kazakhstan and Russia that approximately half the country’s GDP ($2 billion) now comes from remittances abroad. On the other hand, the report notes that there are “no indications of an external threat or any well-organized insurgency” and admits that the Tajik security forces function well – unlike the country’s education, health, and social sectors. (International Crisis Group, February 12, 2009)

… BUT MAY CASH IN ON THE GREAT GAME
Tajikistan may be seeking to cure some its economic ailments by taking a cue from its neighbors in Kyrgyzstan. By auctioning off rights to their military bases, Tajikistan could cash in on the rivalry for influence now underway between America and Russia. Dushanbe is said to be growing disenchanted with Russia (its primary patron) as Moscow has moved aggressively to woo Tajikistan’s regional rival, Uzbekistan. The country is deeply dependent on Russia economically, but does have a number of military bases to dangle as carrots to the West, although the availability of these facilities appears to be dwindling. In 2006, Tajikistan claimed three unused military bases – all near its border with Afghanistan. Sensing U.S. interest, Russia quickly swept into two. Consequently, the final unoccupied base – Khujand – is being eyed by Moscow to house surplus troops from the expanding Collective Security Treaty Organization. (Stratfor, February 24, 2009)

NEW LIFE TO REFORMS IN SAUDI ARABIA?
Since Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah formally came to power in 2005, his administration has sporadically tantalized liberals with vague moves toward reform and subtle challenges to hardliners in the clerical establishment and security services. Now a major reshuffle underway in the Kingdom appears to indicate Abdullah is prepared to accelerate his reformist agenda. Among the conservative figures axed by the king: two of the country’s most influential religious figures, the head of the Kingdom’s notorious “religious police,” the chief of Saudi Arabia’s central bank, and the head of the supreme judicial council. The latter once issued a fatwa condoning the murder of TV broadcasters for promoting “immoral content.” The most surprising of the king’s moves, however, may have been his pick for deputy minister for girls’ education: Nour Fayez, the first woman to receive a senior government job. (Financial Times, February 16, 2009)

MENDING FENCES IN THE MIDDLE EAST
An air of reconciliation has been sweeping across the Middle East in recent weeks as the U.S. and the so-called “moderate” Arab camp of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf States have been making gestures to the “rejectionist” camp of Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah. The head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, went on a Mideast tour which included talks with Hamas in February to promote “solidarity” and “clear the air.” The Saudis, meanwhile, sent intelligence chief Prince Mugrin bin Adbdul Aziz Al-Saud to Syria in the highest-level exchange between the two countries since relations took a nosedive in 2005. And several visits to Syria by U.S. legislators and officials have the region anticipating a thaw between the long-time rivals. Even Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah praised “moderation” in a cheer for Arab reconciliation. Finally, Hamas and Fatah, the two warring Palestinian factions, have reached a tentative accord on forming a national unity government by the end of March. Critically, however, the most contentious disputes have been left for joint committees to resolve, and the significant hostility remaining between the two groups has observers approaching the deal with caution. (foreignpolicy.com, February 17 and 27, 2009)

ARABS RALLY TO BAHRAIN'S SIDE
Iran conveniently provided Arabs with another rallying point in February when a senior Iranian cleric revived a longstanding claim to the island-nation of Bahrain. Earlier in the month, an Iranian MP had told a parliamentary session that Bahrainis would choose Iran over the Arab world, if given the choice, and “questioned their loyalty to their country and their Arab origin.” The real dispute, however, erupted over comments made by Ali Akbar Nateq-Nouri, a senior cleric and close adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader. “Bahrain was the 14th province of Iran until 1970,” claimed Nateq-Nouri, igniting a firestorm among Arab countries which rushed to Bahrain’s defense. Saudi, Egyptian, and Jordanian leaders all condemned the comments and the latter two visited Manama to express solidarity. For its part, Bahrain has halted negotiations with Iran on a natural gas deal that would have provided the island-nation with 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually. (Jeddah Arab News, February 29, 2009)