IRAQ BACKTRACKING ON SOFA REFERENDUM?
[Editor's Note: The Status of Forces Agreement, or SOFA, signed by the United States and Iraq last year was hailed as a landmark in Iraq's quest for sovereign statehood, and a major step toward the normalization of U.S.-Iraqi relations. The final treaty was nearly derailed by heavy Iranian pressure to nix the agreement, considerable domestic opposition within Iraq, and inflexible negotiating positions on both sides. It was eventually signed, however, projecting a withdrawal schedule and strategy for the United States that has been broadly accepted by both Baghdad and the Obama administration. However, one challenge remains: Iraq agreed to put the entire SOFA to a referendum by July 2009, leaving opponents one final opportunity to derail the agreement.]
In an interview with the Center for a New American Security, a senior political adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki gave weight to mounting rumors that the SOFA referendum could be put rest. Given President Obama's commitment to a responsible withdrawal, Sadiq al-Rakibi stated, "we do not feel a referendum is necessary," while acknowledging that canceling the program would require a new law in parliament. If the referendum were to be held and fail, the U.S. would be forced to withdraw troops within twelve months, a prospect leaders in Washington and Baghdad would prefer to avoid given the positive momentum and security gains garnered in the past year.
(foreignpolicy.com, March 10, 2009)
EUROPE STALLING ON NABUCCO...
The controversial Nabucco pipeline, perhaps the most visible symbol of European efforts to diversify energy imports away from Russia, has been put on life-support by the Continent's leaders. Designed to pipe gas from Azerbaijan to Eastern Europe via Turkey, Nabucco has long been plagued by divisions within Europe and questions about supply capability from the Caspian. Germany in particular has spearheaded efforts to "downgrade" Nabucco, favoring instead an alternative pipeline from Russia, Nordstream, that was agreed to under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (who was conveniently appointed to head the NordStream shareholders committee after his term). The latest battle over Nabucco saw the removal of funding for the pipeline from the EU's 5 billion Euro stimulus plan announced earlier this year, but objections from the East Europeans won an infusion of 250 million Euros to keep the pipeline on life support. (Hong Kong Asia Times, March 27, 2009)
...BUT GAZPROM WASTES NO TIME
European infighting may not be the only obstacle to Nabucco, however.Perhaps waiting for the elusive European consensus to emerge was too much for Azerbaijan, whose state oil company reached a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Gazprom on March 30. Analysts see this as part of a broader campaign by Moscow to lock up Caspian energy supplies and forestall any European moves to diversify away from Russian gas. Ron Smith, chief strategist at Moscow's Alfa Bank, argues Gazprom "doesn't want Nabucco... so its pulling all the strings to try and block it." As evidence, the company appears hard at work in Europe too, recently acquiring a 20 percent stake in MOL, Hungary's leading oil and gas company. Hungary sits in the middle of Nabucco's supply route and MOL recently signed up for the South Stream pipeline - one of Moscow's preferred alternatives to Nabucco. (Brussels New Europe, April 6, 2009)
SOURING ECONOMY HITS THE AKP AT THE POLLS
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has fared worse in municipal elections than at any time since its spectacular rise to power in 2002. Its 47 percent target was missed by nearly 10 percentage points, owing to growing dissatisfaction with the Turkish economy. Turkey has been unable to avoid the financial crisis sweeping the globe and the impressive growth seen in the past several years is projected to a drop into recession in 2009. Unemployment has reached a record 13.6 percent, and dissatisfaction among the Turkish population is growing. The AK party was sent a "clear warning," says Yarkin Cebeci, a senior economist at JP Morgan in Istanbul. The party fared particularly badly in Diyarbakir, Izmir, and Adana, where it had campaigned hard, and saw its representation in Ankara and Istanbul significantly diminished. (Reuters, March 30, 2009)
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