Eurasia Security Watch: No. 200

MAHDI ARMY SPLINTERING
The Iraqi government is reporting progress on negotiating amnesties with former Shi'ite militiamen linked to Iran and Iraq's firebrand cleric Muqtada al Sadr. Launched by the Maliki administration, the effort has succeeded in splintering some 200 prominent followers off from Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army, who have exchanged amnesty for a renunciation of violence. The former militants have renamed themselves the Shura al-Ulla'ama, or Clerics Advisory, and are committed to delivering social services and participating in Iraqi politics. Muqtada al Sadr's long leave to conduct religious studies in Iran has allowed more extremist wings of the Mahdi Army to ignore Sadr's call for moderation, said representatives from the Clerics Advisory. (Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2009)

PIPELINE BLAST SHOWCASES MOSCOW-ASHGABAT TENSIONS
On April 9th, a blast ripped through the CAC-4 gas pipeline, cutting gas supplies from Turkmenistan to Russia. Before the dust could settle, Moscow and Ashgabat began trading accusations of responsibility, turning the pipeline blast into a political row with implications for a broader struggle for regional influence and energy. Turkmen officials have called for an international investigation and accused Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, of negligence, demanding it cover the cost of repairs. Turkmenistan's foreign ministry released an unusually stark accusation, stating "This accident happened due to a unilateral and egregious violation by Russian company Gazprom." Gazprom has denied responsibility, and Russian commentators have pointed to Turkmenistan's history with "technical difficulties."

The two are jockeying for leverage at a time that both parties face serious financial challenges. Gazprom is currently flush with gas reserves as European demand for Russian gas is crumbling under the weight of the global economic crisis. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, is fearing a decrease in export profits when it negotiates new pricing agreements with Russia; it wants to lock in new prices now, while Gazprom would like to wait. However, some Russian analysts are speculating that Turkmenistan could have larger ambitions, such as seeking justification to distance itself from Russia, diversify gas exports, and join the U.S.-backed trans-Caspian pipeline.
(eurasianet.org, April 10 and April 15, 2009)

NEW U.S. PROGRAM TO TRAIN PA SECURITY FORCES
The U.S. is expanding efforts to bolster security forces serving under President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank, instituting a new two-month-long "senior leaders course" for commanders from the Palestinian National Security. Under the new program, Jordanian instructors are training army lieutenant colonels and colonels under American supervision. Some eighty graduates have already completed the course, conducted in Ramallah, which is also accepting commanders from "the civilian police, the general intelligence service, the preventative security force and the civilian defense authority." (Tel Aviv Ha'aretz, April 13, 2009)

EGYPT UNCOVERS HEZBOLLAH TERROR PLOT
Egypt has always had a rocky relationship with Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, but an Egyptian raid on a Hezbollah cell allegedly plotting attacks on Israeli tourists within Egypt and smuggling weapons to the Gaza Strip has turned this diplomatic cold war hot. Egypt claims it has captured some 25 of 49 members of a Hezbollah terrorist cell surveying Israeli tourist sites and Egyptian towns in the Sinai. Two of the militants planned to carry out a major suicide attack in Tel Aviv, according to Egyptian officials. The accused could face the death penalty.

Following the raid Egypt has been unusually outspoken in its condemnation of Hezbollah and Iran. Egyptian officials have told the media that Hezbollah would "pay a heavy price for plotting terror attacks aimed at undermining Egypt's sovereignty." Egyptian state press has called Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah a "monkey sheikh," an "Iranian agent," and "Dracula." Egypt's foreign minister, Ahmed Abul Gheit, joined in the colorful analogies, insisting that "Iran and [its] followers want Egypt to become a maid of honor for the crowned Iranian queen when she enters the Middle East." Meanwhile, a government lawyer in Egypt has filed a lawsuit seeking to revoke the license of Hezbollah's TV station, al-Manar. The station regularly airs speeches and analysis condemning the Egyptian regime for its cordial relationship with Israel. (Stratfor, April 15, 2009; Jerusalem Post, April 20, 2009)