DAMASCUS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS IN IRAQ
Since taking office, the Obama administration has sent a series of signals to the Assad regime in Dasmascus designed to test Syria's willingness to end its isolation and cooperate with the U.S. in areas such as Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories. However, reports that Syria is again being used as a conveyer belt to shuttle extremists into Iraq are undermining efforts at conciliation, and calling into question Syria's supposed commitment to peaceful progress in the region. The Syrian "transit route" into Iraq was thought to have been closed as recently as a few months ago when the traffic from jihadists had dipped from nearly 100 a month to just a handful. But Gen. David Petraeus, the Commander of United States Central Command, now says the route has been "reactivated," with the number of transiting fighters rising to 20 a month and Iraqi border security faltering. (Washington Post, May 11, 2009)
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD KEEPS FIST CLENCHED
In early May President Obama announced he had selected a location to give his long-awaited address to the Muslim world. On June 4th, Mr. Obama would speak from Egypt, one of America's staunchest allies in the region as well as a cultural and political leader within the Arab world. Yet not everyone in Egypt is thrilled with President Obama's outreach effort: Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, the Muslim world's largest Islamist organization and a staunch political opponent of the Mubarak regime, has dismissed the President's initiative as cover for a plan to divide the Arab states and, in the words of the Brotherhood's deputy leader, Mohamed Habib, to "guarantee the superiority of the Zionist entity." (Reuters, May 9, 2009)
ECONOMIC CRISIS FORCES PRAGMATISM IN IRAQ
Even the most optimistic observers of the dramatic progress in Iraq willingly admit that several fundamental political issues remain unresolved. Sitting atop most of these lists are the dual challenges of Iraqi Kurdistan, which seeks greater autonomy from the federal government, and the handling of Iraq's oil resources, a significant proportion of which are located in the Kurdish-dominated north. However, the falling price of oil on international markets appears to have forced Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) into a modus vivendi, even if temporarily. The KRG's oil minister, Ashti Hawrami, recently announced that his administration had reached agreement with Baghdad to export oil from fields in the KRG through Iraqi pipelines onto Turkey.
Though Baghdad and the KRG have already agreed to a revenue-sharing formula, the two have remained at odds over the latter's right to sign oil contracts and production-sharing agreements. Thus the aforementioned deal, which could send as much as 250,000 barrels of oil per day to Turkey, may well mark the first significant breakthrough between the KRG and the federal government in the economic arena. (foreignpolicy.com, May 13, 2009)
A GREAT GAME OF A DIFFERENT SORT
In its ongoing effort to diversify supply routes into Afghanistan, the U.S.has begun to make progress in Uzbekistan - after suffering a significant setback in Kyrgyzstan. In addition to newly opened land routes through Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Washington has secured from the Uzbek government an agreement to allow the Uzbek air cargo hub at Navoi to transport non-lethal supplies to Afghanistan. Furthermore, a deal between Uzbekistan and South Korea's Korean Air will see the Asian airline, which manages the airport, substantially upgrade the base's infrastructure to handle up to 300 tons of cargo daily.
Observers see Washington's hand in this ostensibly "commercial" deal between South Korea and Uzbekistan, since Korean Air was one of several firms to submit proposals to the U.S. military's Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) in November under a request for plans to provide alternative logistics routes to Afghanistan. In its proposal, Korean Air claimed it could transfer non-military goods from America's east coast to Afghanistan in 25.5 hours, and from Europe to Kandahar in 12. Securing the deal at Navoi was critical given the Pentagon's pending eviction from the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, scheduled for this summer. Yet Washington remains fixated by Turkmenistan, which alone could transit goods to Afghanistan via the Caspian Sea or Iran and is said to have several logistics blueprints waiting for implementation; plans that await only the go-ahead from the Turkmen president, who is said to favor Turkmenistan's perceived neutrality. (eurasianet.org, May 11 and 21, 2009)
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