IRAQ'S HYDROLOGICAL CHALLENGE
Terrorism, revenue-sharing arrangements, political reconciliation, and calls for Kurdish independence are not the only challenges facing the Maliki administration in Baghdad. New evidence is emerging that the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, the lifeblood of Iraq for millennia, are drying up. Iraqis and U.S. officials point to two causes. First, rainfall has been "far below normal" over the past two years, and production of staple crops such as wheat and barley this year is expected to be roughly half of what it was in 2007. However, far more culpable, say Iraqi officials, are the water policies of Syria and Turkey. The pair sit upstream on the Tigris and Euphrates, and Iraq lacks any formal treaties with the duo on the usage and management of water. Baghdad is therefore effectively at the mercy of Damascus and Ankara, who together have no less than seven dams on the pair of rivers upstream from Iraq. The U.S. army is calling the situation "very, very serious." (New York Times, July 13, 2009)
RUSSIA SEEKS ANOTHER BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN
Only a week after Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev won re-election by a wide margin (76.4% of votes) in a questionably-run poll regarded by international observers as "a disappointment," talk has emerged that Moscow and Bishkek have reached an agreement on granting Russia rights to a second military base in Kyrgyzstan. Reports surfaced as early as June 9th that Russia had put in a request for the base during a trip to Bishkek by Russia's deputy prime minister and defense minister. Speculation is that Russia is seeking to use "an abandoned Soviet-era military facility near the city of Osh in the densely populated Ferghana valley" for the new facility. Osh is strategically positioned along the Uzbek border, less than a hundred miles from Tajikistan and China, and only slightly further from Afghanistan. Moscow, however, is still miffed that Bishkek revoked an order to evict the United States from the Manas airbase - an order made in February, following a $2 billion loan from Russia. (Reuters, July 9, 2009; Associated Press, July 29, 2009; The Economist, July 30, 2009)
ISREAL PREPARES FOR POSSIBLE STRIKE ON IRAN Speculation has swirled for years that Israel could launch a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Israeli officials regularly deny that military action is imminent - and reaffirm that all options remain on the table. It is within this context that an Israeli nuclear-capable submarine and two missile class warships sailed into the Red Sea via the Suez Canal in July. Despite official approval from the Egyptian government (which itself is at odds with Tehran) the move perceived by the region as a signal that Israel was capable of striking Iran - and on short notice. An Israeli defense official said as much to the Times of London, describing the moves as "a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats." The naval exercise was preceded by an over-flight over Greece last year (to demonstrate range) and a suspected airstrike on a weapons convoy in Sudan earlier this year. In the coming weeks, Israel plans to conduct F-16 exercises in the United States and test its Arrow missile defense system as well. (Times of London, July 16, 2009)
SIGNS OF LIFE IN THE WEST BANK There are signs that U.S. and Israeli efforts to boost the authority of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and improve living conditions in the West Bank are beginning to bear fruit. Signals that life in the West Bank is returning to normal can be seen in the opening of the first movie theater in Nablus in two decades, and in the growing popularity of music stores - both shunned or forbidden in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. The IMF expects the West Bank to grow a healthy seven percent in 2009, and car sales last year were up 100 percent over 2007. Meanwhile, the popularity of Abbas' secular Fatah party is rising relative to that of the Islamists in Hamas: in a recent poll carried out by a Palestinian news agency, 35 percent of respondents saw Fatah as trustworthy, compared to just 19 percent for Hamas. (New York Times, July 16, 2009)
HuT CRACKDOWN IN TURKEY
Turkey has launched a nationwide crackdown on the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir, arresting 200 suspects in a series of raids stretching over some 23 provinces. Hizb ut-Tahrir has been outlawed as an extremist group in Turkey and several Central Asian nations but remains legal - and active - in the United States, where some 500 members held a conference outside of Chicago in July titled "The Fall of Capitalism and the Rise of Islam." The group was formed in the Palestinian territories in 1953 and formally renounces violence, however its propaganda and ideology have been repeatedly fingered for fueling extremism and pushing ideologues toward more violent groups such as al-Qaeda. (Moscow RIA Novosti, July 24, 2009)
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