Eurasia Security Watch: No. 211

IRAQ REVERSES COURSE; NO REFERENDUM ON SECURITY AGREEMENT
Iraq has shelved plans to hold a referendum on the U.S.-Iraqi security pact signed by the Bush and Maliki administrations. The agreement dictates U.S. rules of engagement and authority in Iraq, and stipulates a timeline for U.S. withdrawal. Under the current agreement, U.S. troops are to be completely withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2011; were Iraqis to vote “no” in a referendum, the deadline would be moved closer by one year, to the end of 2010. Initially, Sunni political parties demanded the referendum be held as a condition of their initial approval for the security pact, but their insistence on a referendum has faded as security concerns remain and because “the U.S. military had so far abided by the security pact.” (Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2009)

UAE ENTERS NUCLEAR CLUB WITH A BANG...
The United Arab Emirates has become the first country in the world with an active or planned nuclear program to ban outright the practice of uranium enrichment in favor of importation of nuclear fuel. The move comes as part of a long-awaited new law setting into motion a massive nuclear renaissance - including a $41 billion contract to construct several nuclear reactors that will cumulatively provide the tiny Gulf nation with up to one-third of its electricity. The new law, passed on October 3rd, also places stringent conditions on the handling of nuclear material and empowers a nuclear safety regulator that will be insulated from industry influence. The new regulatory body will be headed by none other than a former executive director for operations at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. (Dubai The National, October 5, 2009)

...WHILE SNUBBING IRAN
Elsewhere, the UAE, in a move sure to strain relations with Iran, has substantially tightened restrictions on foreign workers, who make up some 80 percent of the country’s residents and populate high level government jobs. A significant number of those workers are Shi’ite, as the UAE is home to the largest Iranian expatriate community in the Gulf. The crackdown appears to be focused on that community, with reports suggestion that private-sector workers suspected of ties with Iranian-linked groups have been stripped of their jobs. The new restrictions appear to be inspired by the belief that Iran could activate sleeper cells to “sabotage critical sectors such as energy, banking and transportation” in retaliation for any attack on its nuclear program by the West. An unnamed government official is quoted as saying that “Tehran is where the focus is.” This summer, the UAE deported 44 Shi’ites suspected of funneling money to Iranian-backed Hezbollah. (Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2009)

A SAUDI-SYRIAN RAPPROCHEMENT?
Ties between Syria and Saudi Arabia, in a deep freeze since suspected Syrian agents assassinated Saudi ally and former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, appear to be on the mend. A series of developments over the last year suggest the two countries are engaged in a multi-faceted rapprochement since ties hit an all-time low in 2006. For the first time since being named king, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah recently visited Syria on a two-day tour through Damascus and Aleppo with top ministers from his government. The two countries have found agreement on the need to form a Palestinian national unity government, and Saudi Arabia - which is skeptical of Iraq’s Shi’ite government - is backing Syria’s denial that it was involved in a devastating bomb attack in Baghdad in August. The rapprochement has been underway since a summit on Gaza in January 2009, followed by a visit to Saudi Arabia by Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad and cooperation on forming a national unity government in Lebanon this spring. (Asia Times Online, October 8, 2009)

TURKEY CONTINUES HUNT FOR AL-QAEDA
Turkey has apprehended 32 al-Qaeda suspects in a nationwide crackdown. Simultaneous raids across eight provinces reportedly targeted members “found to be planning operations against U.S. and Israeli representative offices and NATO installations.” Turkey, the only Muslim member of NATO, has been on the offensive against al-Qaeda and affiliated groups since 2003, when an al-Qaeda suicide bombing killed 60 people. (Reuters, October 15, 2009)