Eurasia Security Watch: No. 212

LEBANON GETS A NEW GOVERNMENT
After five months of political wrangling in Lebanon’s notoriously fractious parliament, competing political factions have agreed on the composition of a national unity government. The March 14 coalition, led by Saad Hariri and backed by the West and Saudi Arabia, won a majority of parliamentary seats (71 of 128) in the country's June election, but has been negotiating with the Syrian-backed Shi’ite militant group Hezbollah and its allies (who hold 57 seats) to agree on specific candidates to fill the new cabinet. The parties had reached an understanding shortly after the election to allocate 15 (of 30) cabinet seats to March 14, ten to the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance (two directly for Hezbollah) and five to be appointed by the ostensibly neutral president, Gen. Michael Suleiman.

The battle appears to have been settled when Saudi Arabia and Syria leaned on their dependents to cut a deal. Under the new government, Hezbollah and its allies will retain enough seats to block critical legislation. Moreover, resolution to the all-important issue of Hezbollah’s right to “resistance” and to act as a sub-national army in violation of UN Resolution 1701, will be put off -- to be “addressed in the national dialogue.” President Suleiman, opting for the status quo, reiterated that it was “the right of the people, Army, and the resistance to restore land by all means possible.” (Christian Science Monitor, November 10, 2009)

THE IMU ASCENDANT
A “surge” in activity on the part of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), perhaps Central Asia’s largest and deadliest Islamist movement, may reflect a “dangerous transformation” accompanying the apparent death of Tahir Yuldashev, the group’s founder and long-time leader, in an August drone attack in Pakistan. Since reports of Yuldashev’s death, the group has been engaged in “bolder tactics,” possibly signaling a shift away from Yuldashev’s focus on playing a support role for the Pakistani Taliban and back toward the IMU’s original goal of destabilizing Central Asia, and Uzbekistan in particular. IMU activities in Afghanistan and Tajikistan were on the rise in October, and analysts suspect Yuldashev’s death has given way to a younger, more aggressive leadership class, possibly led by Abdur Rahman, an ethnic Tatar. If true, Rahman’s promotion “would underline the way IMU has become a trans-national, not just an Uzbek jihadist movement,” says Paul Quinn Judge, Central Asia project director for the International Crisis Group. (Eurasianet.org, October 20, 2009)

SAUDI JOINS FRAY AGAINST REBELS IN YEMEN
The Yemeni government’s war against Shi’ite rebels based in the north of the country has turned into a regional affair, with Saudi Arabia’s entry into the conflict after Houthist rebels (named after their leader, Yahia Badreddin al Houthi) entered Saudi territory and killed one security officer while wounding 11 more. The Saudis responded with “heavy air strikes” on at least four targets in northern Yemen, using F-15 warplanes and a Saudi Tornado, reports suggest, and sent special forces units and army soldiers into northern Yemen. Riyadh has also deployed military units to the 1,500 kilometer border to back border guards and is constructing a high-tech border fence. The Saudi Press Agency, citing an official source, reported that the rebel attack “gives the kingdom every right to take all measures to end [their] illegitimate presence.” (Washington Post, November 6, 2009; Associated Press, November 5, 2009)

IRAQ CLEARS HURDLE FOR NATIONAL ELECTION
After months of dramatic debate and several false starts, Iraq’s parliament has reached agreement on a law to govern the structure of national elections to be held in January 2010. The new law will retain elements of the electoral structure from the 2005 parliamentary elections, albeit with several important changes. The most important difference is the move to open party lists, in which voters will be able to cast their ballot for individual candidates rather than for parties alone. The move, strongly supported by the United States and United Nations, shifts power away from party leaders and strengthens the hand of small parties and independents. The parliament is also expected to grow – from 275 to around 310 – and a 2008 law banning the use of religious images during campaigning for provincial elections will now apply to national elections as well.

The most contentious issue, the status of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city hosting a struggle for influence between Arabs and Kurds, was settled through compromise: It will receive “special status” in which extra scrutiny in the form of a one year investigation will be given to election results there. Kurds have been pressing for a referendum to take place in Kirkuk to determine whether it will join the Kurdish Autonomous Region in the north. Arabs argue that Kurds have been flooding into the region since the 2003 invasion as part of efforts to alter the demographics before a referendum. (historiae.org, November 8, 2009)