Eurasia Security Watch: No. 213

RIYADH AND TEHRAN TAKE SIDES IN YEMEN CIVIL WAR
Fighting in Yemen between the government and Houthist rebels was joined by Saudi Arabia in early November, after Riyadh blamed the rebel group for a cross-border attack on two Saudi border guards. The Saudis responded with airstrikes on rebel camps, some of which media reports placed in Yemeni territory. The fighting shows little sign of letting up, and last week reports surfaced that the Houthists, members of the Shi’ite Zaidi sect, had taken nine Saudi soldiers prisoner. The rebels have also posted videos on the Internet showing “a captured Saudi special forces soldier, seized Saudi arms and vehicles,” as well as footage of possible white phosphorous attacks on rebel positions in the mountains. The Yemeni government, meanwhile, appears to have repelled an attack on the northern city of Saada, the central city in the northeast province that serves as a rebel stronghold.

Perhaps unsurprisingly in today’s Middle East, the Saudi-Yemen conflict with the Houthists is increasingly serving as a proxy battle in a larger geopolitical and sectarian struggle underway in the region. Despite persistent denials from the Houthists themselves, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and others insist the rebels, part of an offshoot Shi’ite sect, are closely linked to Iran. Tehran did little to dispel this suspicion when Iran’s foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, ominously warned that “Those who pour oil on the fire must know that they will not be spared from the smoke that billows.” He went on to urge “regional countries and especially the neighboring countries... [to] not interfere in the internal issues of Yemen.” Adding to suspicions, in late October “Yemen seized an Iranian ship loaded with weaponry that included anti-tank weapons.” Finally, slogans posted on Houthist websites have parroted Iranian rhetoric calling for death to America and Israel. (Abu Dhabi The National, November 12, 2009; RealClearWorld, November 11, 2009)

[Editor’s note: The Houthists genuinely appear to have little desire to make their struggle against the Yemeni government a sectarian affair (President Saleh is himself a Zaidi Shi’ite). However, it is ultimately impossible to determine how much, if any, support the rebels are receiving from Tehran, although it is worth noting that in Iran’s decades-old battle with Saudi Arabia for influence in the region, Iran has a proven track record of funneling money and arms to minority Shi’ite communities to stir up trouble.]

HEZBOLLAH HAS A NEW MILITARY STRATEGY...
Hezbollah is in the midst of a campaign to rearm and reinforce its positions in Lebanon in anticipation of another war with Israel. Ever since the two sides did battle in mid-2006, the Lebanese militia has been open about its mission to actively reconstitute its rocket and missile stockpiles – a strategy made even clearer by the seizure of 400 tons of rockets and small arms seized in the Mediterranean by Israeli commandoes several weeks ago. But Hezbollah is also shifting strategy, hoping to learn from tactical guerilla successes in the first war. Due to the presence of a United Nations peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) in Lebanon's south, Hezbollah has been forced to “abandon the line of deeply entrenched static positions on the border” but is in the processing of repositioning “its men and weaponry to clusters of Shia villages” farther north. Both Hezbollah and Israeli officials are preparing for a new round of fighting – Hezbollah officials expect an Israeli attack “to come soon,” perhaps in the winter or spring, “when the ground isn’t too soft for their tanks.” Andrew Exum, Hezbollah expert at a prominent Washington think tank, sees Hezbollah “hardening the villages for this next round of fighting, while pushing their fixed positions north away from [the UN force].” (London Guardian, November 8, 2009)

...AND A NEW POLITICAL ONE
Meanwhile, Hezbollah also has updated its political manifesto for the first time in nearly a quarter-century. Devoid of any groundbreaking changes, the document - the first since the organization's original platform in 1985 - mostly rehashes the militant group’s accusations against Israel (it is “raping our land and holy places”) and America (it is an “enemy of our nation and our peoples”). Reflecting Hezbollah’s turn toward nationalism and politics since its founding in the 1980s, or perhaps due to sensitivities about the fact that its main parliamentary allies are Christian, the 32-page document drops reference to creating an Islamic republic in Lebanon. Perhaps most importantly, the new statement directly rebukes UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which called for the militant group to be disarmed. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, reading from the document, insisted Hezbollah’s armed struggle “is a permanent national necessity that should last as long as the Israeli threat, and in the absence of a strong, stable state in Lebanon.” (Reuters, November 30, 2009)