Eurasia Security Watch: No. 219

U.S. PONDERS NEW BASE IN KYRGYZSTAN
The U.S. will soon begin work on an counterterrorism training center in Kyrgyzstan, a spokeswoman for the U.S. embassy there has announced. The $5.5 million base is reportedly going to be located in Batken, along the volatile Uzbek border in the country’s south. Kyrgyzstan is also host to the only remaining U.S. airbase in Central Asia, at Manas. The announcement is directly related to a deal Washington struck last year with Bishkek to remain at Manas after almost being evicted. As part of that arrangement, the U.S. promised to train and equip Kyrgyz military forces and build and upgrade training centers in the former Soviet republic. Last October, the U.S. opened a $9 million Special Forces Training compound in Tokmok for the elite Kyrgyz Scorpion Battalion.

Russia, meanwhile, has been in talks with Bishkek to build a new military facility of its own, though nominally under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional security grouping dominated by Moscow. Batken was rumored to be a likely location for the Russia-CSTO base. (eurasianet.org, March 4, 2010)

IN IRAN’S SHADOW, ARABS SEE ISRAEL IN DIFFERENT LIGHT
[Editor’s note: Though officially hostile, Israel and the Arab states of the Gulf have found common ground in recent years over their shared fear of – and opposition to – the Islamic Republic and its burgeoning nuclear program. Rumors of a potential Israeli air strike on Iran’s known nuclear facilities have circulated for years, but Israel faces several daunting challenges, many of them logistical. Public reports suggest President Bush denied Israeli requests for over-flight access over Iraq – the most direct route – in 2008.]

Saudi Arabia would be prepared to give Israel overflight rights in a potential air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Germany’s premier international newspaper, Der Spiegel, has learned from Western intelligence services. “In the face of pressure from Iran, Arab regimes are more willing to compromise than they have been in a long time.” The “moderate” Gulf Arab states, many closely allied with the U.S., have lessened their anti-Israel rhetoric in recent years as Iran’s regional influence and nuclear capability has grown. “The Arab states are no longer the ones who benefit from the Middle East conflict. Instead, it is the Iranian leadership,” writes the editorial, which was widely critical of the first year of U.S. President Barack Obama’s policies in the Middle East. (Hamburg Der Spiegel, March 15, 2010)

NABUCCO, TWO STEPS FORWARD
Even by the standards of other major pipeline proposals – which regularly involve years of grueling negotiations, technical hurdles, and political setbacks – the Nabucco natural gas pipeline has been on a political and economic roller coaster for over a decade. This March, its prospects are again on the upswing as Turkey’s parliament finally joined the four other parties involved in the project (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania) in signing an intergovernmental transit agreement. The same day, March 4, the European Commission allocated 1.5 billion Euros to energy infrastructure projects in the EU, of which 200 million Euros will go to Nabucco. The 50-year agreement, which took the form of a treaty, is legally binding on all member states and “provides a legally unified transport regime.” Perhaps just as importantly, Turkey and Azerbaijan, regional allies, were finally able to negotiate a pricing agreement after a considerable lull. According to Reinhard Mitschek, Nabucco’s managing director, despite the myriad of past setbacks and potential hurdles the project is set to meet its original schedule. “I can say, yes, we are on schedule… In 2011, we will start construction as foreseen, and as scheduled, at the end of 2014, the first gas will flow to Europe.” (Radio Free Europe, March 16, 2010)

YEMEN PEACE HOLDS
Peace talks in Yemen begun earlier this year between the government and the country’s Houthi rebels are proceeding, albeit cautiously. After a week of government accusations that the rebels were dragging their feet, retaking vacated positions, and refusing to turn in arms, the Houthis freed at least 170 government soldiers and tribal fighters. The government answered with a pledge to free an unspecified number of the Shi’ite rebels, although estimates put them in the hundreds. (Washington Post, March 18, 2010)