Eurasia Security Watch: No. 222

.style3 { color: #434172; }ANOTHER STEP FORWARD FOR NABUCCO
Turkey and Azerbaijan are working out the final details on the critical sticking point delaying progress on the $10 billion Nabucco pipeline, a Western –backed natural gas pipeline designed to lessen Europe’s dependence on Russia for energy. The two have been locked in a natural gas pricing dispute over natural gas for nearly two years – one aggravated by Turkey’s push to normalize relations with Azerbaijan’s arch-rival, Armenia. However, the Turkish-Armenian rapproachement collapsed last month and Azerbaijan is expected to soon announce the conclusion of natural gas pricing contracts with Turkey and the volume allocations for the Nabucco pipeline. Turkey currently imports 6 bcm of natural gas per year for domestic purposes from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz I field in the Caspian Sea. The Shah Deniz II field is expected to come online between 2014 and 2017 with 16 bcm capacity, of which Turkey wants 6-7bcm for itself, leaving 9-10 bcm capacity for Nabucco. According to Ana Jelenkovic of the Eurasia Group, “The package agreement with Turkey will provide the necessary… conditions to start commercial talk s with potential European buyers.” (The Moscow Times May 17, 2010)

NORTH KOREA ARMS BOUND FOR MORE THAN IRAN?
A North Korean plane seized in Bangkok, Thailand last December loaded with 35 tons of weapons was destined for Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel’s foreign minister claimed May 12. The Ilyushin II-76 cargo plane flying from Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, was loaded with explosives, rocket-propelled grenades and components for surface-to-air missiles. The plane, according to flight documents, was bound for Iran, which has a history of purchasing arms from North Korea, an illegal act under UN sanctions banning North Korean arms exports. Speaking from Japan, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called North Korea, Syria and Iran an “axis of evil” and noted that there was an “intention to smuggle these [seized weapons] to Hamas and Hezbollah,” two Islamist militant groups Iran has long provided arms to. (Associated Press May 12, 2010)

TURKEY DEAL ON IRAN SANCTIONS – BREAKTHROUGH OR DELAY TACTIC?
Turkey has reached agreement with Iran on a plan it hopes will absolve the need for sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program at the UN Security Council. Under the agreement, announced by Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, Iran would ship 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey in return for nuclear fuel rods for a medical research reactor. “While in Turkey this LEU will continue to be the property of Iran. Iran and the IAEA may station observers to monitor the safekeeping of the LEU in Turkey.” The 1,200 kg of LEU, enriched at 3.5%, would be shipped to Turkey within a month of the finalized agreement and Iran would receive the fuel rods within a year.

However, several unlikely hurdles would have to be cleared for the pact to come into effect. Details of the agreement would have to be finalized and then approved by China, Russia, the U.S., France, Britain, and the IAEA and Western diplomats have already expressed skepticism. Iran pulled out of a similar deal – struck in Vienna last year with the IAEA, Russia, France and the US -- earlier this year. Since the Vienna deal was tabled, Iran has produced more LEU and has begun manufacturing its own 20% enriched uranium for the Tehran research reactor – a process that Iran would be allowed to continue under the new deal. While unlikely to resolve any outstanding issues, the tentative deal may provide Iran with enough cover to halt or at least delay a new round of Security Council sanctions. (London Guardian May 17, 2010)

TURKMEN LEADER ENDORSES NEW PARTY
The president of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, has called for the establishment of a multiparty system. In Turkmenistan political gatherings are illegal and one -party rule (the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, formerly the Communist Party) has persisted since the country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Addressing a meeting of the Council of Elders, Berdymukhaddov said the country was ready for more political parties and advised that the country’s second party should be an “agrarian party.” The new president has been viewed as a modernizing figure, at least when compared with Turkmenistan’s previous totalitarian ruler, Turkmenbashi, whose death in 2006 paved the way for the rise of Berdymukhammedov, a dentist and former deputy Prime Minister. (Radio Free Europe May 15, 2010)

POLITICAL GRIDLOCK IN BAGHDAD
Iraq’s two main Shi’ite political coalitions have agreed to form an alliance, placing them in an advantaged position to form a government ahead of the top vote-getter, a secular coalition supported by Sunnis and led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. The results from Iraq’s March 7 poll have been contested by several parties and Baghdad has been paralyzed by political gridlock as the parties have jockeyed to form governing coalitions. Allawi’s coalition, Iraqiya, won 91 seats while the coalition of incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki won 89. However, Maliki’s State of Law coalition has reached agreement with the Shi’ite Islamist Iraqi National Alliance coalition that includes representatives from anti-American cleric Moqtada al Sadr’s movement and from the Tehran-allied Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq. A similar alliance was formed after the 2005 elections, however the Shi’ite Islamist nature of the government left many Sunnis feeling disenchanted and marginalized. In Iraq and Washington there is concern that another Shi’ite led alliance could again drive Sunni groups toward violence. (Financial Times May 5, 2010)