Eurasia Security Watch: No. 228

.style3 { color: #434172; } .style4 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; } .style5 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: #5C6276; } .style6 { text-decoration: underline; } BAHRAIN REASSERTS CONTROL OVER MOSQUES
The Bahraini government is bringing the mosques in this small island nation under tighter state control in an attempt counter the influence of “incompetent politicians or clerics who have lost their way.” The government has long had a hand in regulating religion in the majority Shi’ite kingdom, but is attempting to reassert greater control as prosecutors charge 23 “activists,” including several prominent opposition figures, with undermining national security. Most of the suspects belong to the Haq Movement, a mostly Shi’ite group at odds with the Sunni-dominated government that opposes participation in elections and deems the 2002 constitution illegitimate. The group has campaigned on the slogan, “The rule of rights, not the rule of law.” In comments addressed to King Hamad, Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifah bin Salman al-Khalifah said the government wanted to ensure places of worship were staffed by those who “promote the values of tolerance and moderation.” (Gulf Times, September 7, 2010)

IRAQI OFFICIALS WANT LONGER U.S. PRESENCE
For years, Iraqi politicians jockeyed among themselves to hold the most anti-American positions. The reasons were practical; demanding an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops was a fast way to earn points with the public. Now, however, government officials - including the country's defense minister and army chief - have begun to sing a different tune. President Barack Obama has committed to the withdrawal of all U.S. troops by the end of 2011, following the timeline established in the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement signed by the Bush administration. However, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul Qader Obeidi says the Iraqi Army won’t be able to defend the country’s borders until at least 2016, and that while Iraqi troops will be “100% ready” to provide internal security by 2011, they will only be “65% ready” to defend against external threats. “We have equipment such as tanks, aircraft, naval equipment [from the U.S.]," Obeidi said, "They won’t be fully ready until 2016, so how are we going to train on them? By mail?” Meanwhile, the chief of staff of the Iraqi armed forces, Gen. Babakir Zebari, sees a need for U.S. forces to remain until 2020, and would like them to retain as many as four military bases in the country to help defend against external enemies. (Los Angeles Times, September 8, 2010)

REFERENDUM AMENDS TURKEY’S CONSTITUTION, BOOSTS AKP
A sweeping package of constitutional amendments was approved in Turkey in a referendum held September 12. The vote was a victory for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been locked in an ongoing struggle for power and influence with Turkey’s secular establishment. Early results showed a turnout of 78 percent, with a vote of 58 percent in a favor of the amendments and 42 percent opposed. Some of the changes dealt with social issues that were popular across the political spectrum, such as gender equality and worker’s rights. Others, however, have proven far more controversial. One amendment will expand membership in the powerful Constitutional Court from 11 to 17 while another expands the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors from just seven members to 22. Both amendments will give the parliament and presidency, currently in the hands of the AKP, greater influence over the judicial bodies, which are presently stacked with secularists. (Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2010)

SHI’ITE-SUNNI MILITANTS JOIN HANDS IN IRAQ
In a rare and troubling cross-sectarian alliance in Iraq, Shi’ite militants appear to be joining ranks with Sunni extremists from al-Qaeda to spread violence and threaten stability in southern Iraq. Although both al-Qaeda and Shi’ite militias have targeted U.S. and Iraqi government forces before, they have targeted each other just as often, and there have been no prior known instances of collaboration between the groups. Al-Qaeda has espoused a virulently anti-Shi’ite ideology since its inception. However, government officials and community leaders in southern Iraq, which is almost exclusively Shi’ite, insist the two groups are cooperating.

Community leaders around southern Iraq, where bombings in more than 10 cities killed over 60 people in August, insist the failure to form a government since parliamentary elections in March was one motivation, while some Shi’ite militant groups were simply working as “guns for hire.” Ironically, some Iraqi Shi’ites may be siding with al-Qaeda to counter the growing influence of neighboring Iran, which is also predominantly Shi’ite. Jabber al Jabberi, an imam at the al Hadari mosque, warns “The Shi’ites who side with al Qaeda are afraid more than anything else that Iran will change the identity of Basra from an Arab city.” (Dubai The National, September 12, 2010)