Eurasia Security Watch: No. 229

.style3 { color: #434172; } .style4 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; } .style5 { font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; color: #5C6276; } .style6 { text-decoration: underline; } RUSSIAN MISSILES TO SYRIA PUT ISRAEL DEAL AT RISK
An announcement by Russia in mid-September that it would supply Syria with P-800 Yakhont supersonic naval cruise missiles is threatening to derail a Russian-Israeli military cooperation deal. A senior Israeli defense source warns that Israel “will have to reconsider all proposed deals with Russia. Moscow did not show the necessary understanding of [Israel’s] requests.” The Russian-Syrian deal was signed in 2007 and Israel has fiercely opposed it ever since. Russia’s announcement that it will supply the naval missiles to Damascus puts at risk a cooperation agreement Israel signed with Russia only weeks earlier, which included plans to set up a $300 million unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) factory in Russia. Russia has shown great interest in Israeli UAVs, spending around $50 million on them this year to “train operators and develop tactics for using modern systems.” (Moscow RIA Novosti, September 23, 2010)

GULF ANXIETY OVER IRAN ON THE RISE
Simmering anxiety among Gulf Arabs about Iran’s rising influence in the Middle East is reaching new heights this year. The dynamic is evident in increasingly candid remarks from Gulf officials and in the massive spending spree on arms underway in capitals across the region. With U.S. companies alone, the Gulf states have signed over $100 billion in arms deals in recent years, with Saudi Arabia engaged in a $67 billion military modernization program and the UAE spending $35 billion on its own hardware purchases and upgrades. On the diplomatic front, the UAE’s ambassador to the U.S., Yousef al-Otaiba, was chastised by his country’s foreign ministry in July for making unusually frank remarks about the Iranian threat, noting that the UAE’s armed forces “wake up, dream, breathe, eat, sleep the Iranian threat. It’s the only conventional military threat our military plans for, trains for, equips for.” Mr. Otaiba also added that the U.S. should “absolutely” use force to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, Kuwait detained several people this summer accused of spying on installations for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Sunni-run government in Bahrain, which is a Shi’ite-majority island nation and a close ally of the U.S., is cracking down on Shi’ite groups that the government says receive “foreign funding” ahead of parliamentary elections this month. (Financial Times, September 23, 2010)

SAUDI STARTS NEW RE-EDUCATION EFFORT
Saudi Arabia is opening a new chapter in its novel, eight-year-old effort to combat Islamist extremism through strictly controlled religious education for preachers and imams and reeducation for former Islamist militants. The newest program involves gathering the most senior scholars in Saudi Arabia to give a series of 20 religious training sessions to train preachers and imams across the Kingdom to resist extremist ideologies. Khaled al-Ma’eena, editor of the Saudi-based Daily News, welcomes the initiative, which he believes will “cause Imams to soften their tone.” He adds: “Now finally there are alternative voices to the extremist ones we were used to hearing.” The new program piggybacks off a series of initiatives begun in 2004-2005, after the Kingdom fell victim to a series of al-Qaeda-sponsored terrorist attacks and the reform-minded King Abdullah came to power. Those programs include an effort by King Abdullah to foster a level of dialogue with other faiths, a national dialogue project designed to promote religious tolerance at home, and a reeducation and reintegration program for Saudi jihadis that pairs them with moderate Muslim scholars within the Wahhabi religious school. (Jerusalem Post, September 27, 2010)

IRAQI POLITICS AND THE IRAN FACTOR
Iranian influence in Iraq has grown as a result of the U.S. invasion of that country in 2003 – a sobering fact few analysts would dispute. And with an increasing likelihood that the new government in Iraq will be formed by a coalition of Shi’ite groups with former and current ties to Tehran, Iran’s influence would appear only to be on the rise. The conventional wisdom, however, may be wrong. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been jockeying with several parliamentary factions to form a government since elections seven months ago. He appeared to score a coup on October 1st when Muqtada al-Sadr reversed his opposition to another term for Maliki and told his sizable parliamentary faction to back Maliki’s bid to remain prime minister. This paved the way for Maliki to join with Sadr and other Iranian-backed Shi’ite Islamist factions to form a sectarian government. Except the Shi’ite faction probably closest to Iran, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), may not be willing to play along. Shortly after al-Sadr announced his backing for Maliki, ISCI reached out to members of a rival faction of Sunnis and secular Shi’ites led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi, who is closer to the U.S. This “defection” could undermine the chances at forming the most Iranian-friendly government possible, and analysts are calling it a “strategic defeat” for Iran. (Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2010)

[Editor’s Note: Allawi’s political bloc won the most votes in Iraq’s election (91 to Maliki’s 89). The U.S. has pushed for a national unity government joining both Maliki’s and Allawi’s factions, but personal animosity between the two principals and disagreement over who would serve as prime minister has prevented that from materializing. There have been rumors that a deal was in the works to expand the powers of the presidency and allow Allawi to serve in that role, while Maliki retained the post of Prime Minister and the Kurds, who now hold the presidency, would take the position of the Speaker of the Parliament, where they may be best positioned to push their autonomy agenda. However, if Maliki is able to solidify support from the various Shi’ite Islamist camps and possibly the Kurds, Allawi’s secular and Sunni coalition will be sidelined.]