U.S. REASSESSES NDN AFTER PAK BORDER CRISIS
As the U.S.-led Coalition in Afghanistan has encountered difficulty using its main logistical supply route through Pakistan, the alliance has begun to increase its reliance on alternative supply routes into Afghanistan, namely the North Distribution Network (NDN)—a chain of railways and roads through Russia and Central Asia. On September 30, Pakistan shut the Torkham border crossing to Coalition traffic to protest the accidental killing of Pakistani border guards by a U.S. attack helicopter. The crossing was reopened on October 9th, after a wave of attacks on parked fuel and supply trucks destroyed dozens of vehicles and killed dozens of people.
Today, Pakistan is responsible for roughly half of the cargo destined for Afghanistan (the majority of which passes through Torkham, the rest through Chaman in Pakistan’s south). Alternatively, the NDN now accounts for 30 percent of all cargo, while 20 percent -- mostly weapons and sensitive material -- is shipped by air. Traffic through the NDN has been increasing since the Spring and 2,939 containers were shipped along the route in August, up from 1,904 in March. Much of the cargo (some 60 percent) is fuel imported from Eurasia. However, some analysts fear that increased reliance on the NDN will make it a tempting target for the Taliban, who have been gaining strength in northern Afghanistan. (Eurasianet.org, October 6, 2010)
TURKEY’S OPPOSITION LOOKS TO NEW LEADERSHIP
After taking a drubbing from Turkey’s dominant Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) in several consecutive elections, Turkey’s center-left opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is hoping to rejuvenate itself under new leadership. The party first established by Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, has turned to the 61-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu, dubbed by some as “Turkey’s Gandhi,” to reinvigorate a party that has fallen from public grace. Under its new leader, the CHP is announcing a new agenda that includes establishing a flat tax and dropping opposition to the female headscarf in public universities. Kilicdaroglu has also spoken out against elements of the AKP’s foreign policy, which has brought Turkey closer to Iran and Palestinian opposition groups at the expense of Turkey’s relationship with Israel, which has reached a modern-day low. (Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2010)
ISRAEL WARMS TO GREECE
One unexpected consequence of the precipitous deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations over the past year has been a surge in diplomatic activity between Israel and Turkey’s historic European rival, Greece. In mid-October, Israel conducted joint drills with Greece’s air force and the foreign ministers of both countries signed a civil aviation agreement, marking their first bilateral pact in 60 years. A senior Israeli official told the Washington Times “We do not consider this to be a zero-sum game. We strive to have good strategic relations with all countries in the Mediterranean that are willing to have relations with us.” In August, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became the first Israeli premier to visit Greece. Reports also suggest Israeli and Greek officials have begun discussions about an Israeli natural gas pipeline that would run through Greece. (Washington Times, October 21, 2010)
UAE HEDGES ON HORMUZ
The Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed as one of the world’s most strategically vital naval chokepoints. Nearly all of the Gulf’s oil exports and, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, 40% of the world’s seaborne traded oil, pass through a narrow strait whose waters are controlled partly by Iran, which has repeatedly threatened to block navigation if it is ever attacked by Israel or the U.S. This dangerous dynamic makes the announcement by the United Arab Emirates that it has opened a new naval base at Fujairah on its east coast – past the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman – strategically significant. Abu Dhabi, the Emirate that controls more than 90 percent of the nation’s crude reserves, is building an oil and a gas pipeline to Fujairah as well as a “a huge oil export facility and an oil storage terminal.” The gas pipeline, called the “Dolphin project,” will run from Qatar through Abu Dhabi and Fujairah and then on to Oman. Riad Kahwaji, founder of the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, says Fujairah will “be a major point of export for oil and gas.” (Defense News, October 21, 2010)