Eurasia Security Watch: No. 232

TURKEY AND ISRAEL CONTINUE PARTING WAYS
The deteriorating Turko-Israeli relationship has taken what appears to be another step backwards, with the Turkish newspaper Sabah reporting that Turkey’s intelligence agencies have severed relations with Israel’s premier intelligence body, the Mossad. The report has not been confirmed or denied by the Israeli government. The once-strong Turkish-Israeli alliance has been in sharp decline for over a year, and the report about the intelligence fallout follows a pair of recent decisions by the Turkish government that were poorly received by the Netanyahu government. First, the Turkish government, led by Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party, appointed Hakan Fidan as the new head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization. The appointment caused “deep concern” in Israel, where Fidan is viewed as a proponent of stronger Turko-Iranian relations. Second, as America lobbied Turkey to become part of a new NATO missile defense architecture through the fall of 2010, Turkey, as its price of admission, demanded that no information collected by the new system be shared with Israel. (Haaretz October 26, 2010)

VIOLENCE AND ISLAMISM RETURN TO TAJIKISTAN
Violence and Islamist sentiments are again on the rise in Tajikistan, where a bloody civil war took place in the mid-1990s after the former Soviet Central Asian Republic gained independence. The government was able to reach a reconciliation agreement with the largely Islamist opposition in 1997, incorporating elements into the government, army and police forces. Since then, however, the government has sought to keep a tight lid on Islamist activity and opposition activities. Yet this year alone, 364 new mosques have been opened and the more and more women are choosing to wear the veil in public. In August, twenty-five “regime critics” escaped from the security services’ central prison, killing five prison guards. Weeks later, Tajikistan experienced its first suicide bombing, in which 2 policeman were killed and 28 people injured. Later in September, a Tajik military convoy was ambushed and 28 soldiers were killed. And finally, on October 6, 34 Tajik soldiers were killed -- including special forces units from the Ministry of State Security and National Guard. Experts in Tajikistan insist the Islamist fighters are now using “Afghan tactics.” (Der Spiegel November 5 2010)

ANOTHER SAUDI TERRORISM ROUNDUP
In what has become a common occurrence in the Kingdom, the Saudis have announced they made a series of terrorism-related arrests over the past eight months, as well as foiled several attacks against government, the security services, and journalists. In all, some 149 suspected terrorists from 19 al-Qaeda linked cells were arrested, including 124 Saudis and 25 foreign nationals. In addition, nearly $600,000 was seized from suspected al Qaeda members who were “trying to collect money and spread their ideology during the Haj” pilgrimage. Saudi officials worked with Interpol to arrest some of the militants and in some cases arrested “advocates of deviant ideologies on Internet forums.” (Arab News November 27, 2010)

FLAWED ELECTIONS IN EGYPT
Egypt’s ruling party has swept national parliamentary elections held through November and December that have been denounced as fraudulent by opposition parties and human rights groups. The White House was “disappointed with the conduct” of the election and called the poll “worrying.” The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), led by 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, increased its majority in parliament from 73% to roughly 97% of seats. The country’s largest opposition party, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, won no seats outright and the secular Wafd Party won two. After apparent vote-rigging in the first round, the Muslim Brotherhood and Wafd Party pulled their candidates from the second round runoff election, exacerbating the size of the NDP’s landslide victory. President Mubarak is rumored to be preparing the way for his son, Gamal to succeed him. However, the “young guard” of NDP members around Gamal --businessmen and technocrats trying to position themselves as pragmatic reformers -- are said to have felt “discomfort” by the lopsided election results. (Los Angeles Times December 4; Christian Science Monitor December 6, 2010)

SYRIA MEDDLING DESPITE OBAMA OUTREACH
There is evidence growing that Syria’s influence in the Middle East is on the rise -- and exclusively in ways that are inimical to the interest of the United States and its allies. The development is undermining U.S. policies in the region but is also a reminder of the failure of the Obama administration’s attempts at engaging the autocratic regime in Damascus. Secretary of State Clinton admitted as much on November 10, when she stated “Syria’s behavior has not met our hopes and expectations over the past 20 months and Syria’s actions have not met its international obligations.” Among the developments of concern are “Syria’s fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah.” Israel has been tracking nighttime shipments of missiles from Syria into Lebanon. Meanwhile, experts say Syrian influence over Lebanese affairs has reached an all-time high, eclipsing even the period when Syria de-facto occupied the country with 15,000 troops. The head of Lebanon’s military intelligence and the director general of security were both Syrian-approved appointees and nearly all of Lebanon’s leaders, including the pro-Western Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, now toe a pro-Syrian line. (Washington Post December 4, 2010)