Eurasia Security Watch: No. 233

THE IMU REMAKES ITSELF
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was once considered a “small band of militants focused on taking down the Uzbek regime and replacing it with an Islamic State.” The group that exists today no longer fits that description. The IMU, which was formed in 1991 and originally operated almost exclusively in Uzbekistan and neighboring Tajikistan, has remade itself from its new safe haven in Pakistan’s rugged tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The IMU entered Afghanistan in 2000 to ally with the Taliban against the Iranian-, Russian-, and Indian-backed Northern Alliance. After suffering heavy losses as a result of the U.S. invasion in November 2001, the group’s remnants fled to Pakistan, where it rebuilt its ranks with “thousands of Central Asian recruits [and] strengthened alliances with militant organizations such as Al-Qaeda [and] the Pakistani Taliban.” Some analysts now believe the IMU provides al-Qaeda with much of its rank and file membership.

Still, the new IMU is without its founder, Tahir Yuldashev, who was killed in a CIA drone strike in 2009. The group has also splintered with the formation of several offshoots. Most importantly, however, it seems to be turning its sights back to Central Asia, where a series of attacks in recent years have been attributed to the IMU and its affiliated groups. More worrisome still, the IMU has recently been linked to terror plots targeting Europe. One unintended consequence of the group’s revival is that it has become a “major irritant” in relations between Pakistan and the Central Asian countries, who are concerned about the safe haven they have carved out for themselves on Pakistani territory. (Radio Free Europe, December 6, 2010)

AMERICAN SOFT POWER AT WORK IN SAUDI ARABIA
Not all revelations by whistleblower website Wikileaks have been negative or reflected poorly on the United States. A series of State Department cables out of Saudi Arabia show that in some parts of the world, American soft power is very much alive and well. The cables, drawing on interviews between State Department officials and Saudi media executives, show that one of the biggest drivers of progressive ideas in that ultra-conservative Muslim country is a new influx of American television programming, including popular shows like Desperate Housewives, Friends, and even Fox News. Saudi Arabia has begun opening up its media market as part of Riyadh’s “war of ideas” against extremism. According to one Saudi media executive quoted in the cables, “Saudis are now very interested in the outside world and everybody wants to study in the U.S. if they can. They are fascinated by U.S. culture in a way they never were before.” (London Guardian, December 7, 2010)

TAPI BACK ON THE TABLE
An oft-troubled gas pipeline fifteen years in the making – one that would link Central Asian gas to South Asian consumers – made an important step forward in December. In the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, Afghan President Hamid Karzai signed an agreement with officials from Turkmenistan, India, and Pakistan on the 1,000 mile long TAPI pipeline (named after the countries involved) which would bring Turkmen gas to India and Pakistan and bring transit revenues to Afghanistan and Pakistan. As planned, the massive pipeline would become operational in 2014, with construction to begin in 2012. The U.S. has been a large proponent of the $7.6 billion pipeline, as it would sideline gas-rich Iran, which is seeking a bigger share in South Asia’s burgeoning energy market.

However, the pipeline faces several hurdles, not least from the ongoing violence and instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as questions on how the pipeline will be financed. Afghanistan has pledged it will deploy between five and seven thousand security personnel to safeguard the pipeline route. On a side note, Russia recently expressed interest in participating in the TAPI project, though it is not clear under what terms. Russian energy giant Gazprom has said it was “examining a role alongside India.” (United Press International, December 20, 2010; Radio Free Europe, December 15, 2010)

TURKEY AND RUSSIA, FRIENDS FOREVER?
As a NATO member and the heir to the Ottoman Empire that fought several wars against Imperial Russia, Turkey has long been considered a historic rival of the Russian state. However, budding economic ties are dramatically changing the once-contentious relationship between the two countries. In 2008, Russia became Turkey’s largest trading partner, beating out Germany. Bilateral trade is expected to eclipse $40 billion by year’s end, and Turkey now imports over two-thirds of its natural gas needs from Russia while Russian exports make up twenty percent of its imported oil.

The thaw in relations dates back to 2001, when the two countries agreed to stop supporting one another’s separatist groups (Turkey was supportive of the separatists in Chechnya; Russia of Turkey’s independence-minded Kurds). Now, ties are so good Russia has agreed to build Turkey’s first nuclear power reactor, and may build as many as four in a deal worth as much as $20 billion. During their negotiations, the two countries also agreed to build an oil pipeline from Turkey’s Black Sea coast to its Mediterranean coast to help ease traffic through the Bosporus strait. (Istanbul Zaman, December 27, 2010)