Eurasia Security Watch: No. 234

TURKEY REAPING REWARDS IN IRAQ
Turkey has always had deep reservations about the Iraq War, famously refusing the United States, its NATO ally, passage through its territory for the initial invasion in 2003. Foremost, Ankara has been deeply concerned about the effects an increasingly-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan could have on its own restive Kurdish population. Yet, ironically, Turkey has also been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Iraq War, and its influence is now “greater in northern Iraq and broader, though not deeper, than Iran’s in the rest of the country.” Two-way trade between Turkey and Iraq doubled between 2008 and 2010, from $3 billion to $6 billion. Turkish businessmen have established a heavy presence in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, where 15,000 Turks and 700 Turkish companies are at work. The Turkish military even has a presence in northern Iraq, with 1,500 troops stationed there. (Since 2007, the Turkish military has conducted strikes against Kurdish separatist groups that target Turkey but operate from northern Iraq.) Turkish politicians have begun speaking of an “Iraqi Kurdistan,” a term they once feared, while Kurdish officials have dropped references to a “Greater Kurdistan.” Turkish diplomats have forged ties with all of Iraq’s political factions, including the Shi’ite Islamist bloc headed by Muqtada al Sadr. All of this newfound influence culminated in Turkey’s role as mediator and coalition-builder when it helped forge a new governing coalition in Iraq after nine months of political stalemate. (New York Times, January 4, 2011)

TUNISIA ROCKED BY PROTESTS, PRESIDENT BEN ALI RESIGNS
The President of Tunisia has stepped down after this normally sleepy North African country was hit by a rare wave of violent unrest, with protesters mobbing the streets of the capital to protest unemployment, corruption, and a repressive government. Twenty three people were killed in four weeks of rioting and clashes with the government forces, as soldiers were deployed to the capital to quell the violence. The Obama administration condemned “excessive force [used] by the government of Tunisia” while Tunisian President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali attempted to hold onto his job by firing his interior minister and taking to the airwaves on December 13 to announce a series of measures he hoped would placate the protesters. The seventy-four-year-old president ordered his security forces to stop using live ammunition except in cases of self defense; asked the prime minister to reduce the price of food staples, like milk and bread; and promised to give “complete freedom to all media outlets… as long as they respect our values and the value of the profession.” The president also suggested, indirectly, that he would not run for another term in the next election in 2014. Current law places a 75-year age limit on the presidency, which he will exceed this year. However, in the end it was not enough and the President Ben Ali was forced to flee the country on January 14th. Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi assumed the powers of the presidency. (CNN January 13; Reuters January 12; VOA January 14, 2011)

CLINTON VISITS YEMEN AS IT GRAPPLES WITH INSURGENCY
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made an unannounced visit to Sana’a on January 11, the first by a U.S. secretary of state in two decades, to stress the need for more political and economic reforms and to highlight the need for more military aid to combat al-Qaeda and other extremist groups. “I want to be frank,” Secretary Clinton said. “There are terrorists operating from Yemeni territory today… some of whom I’m sorry to say are American citizens. So this is an urgent concern for both of us.”

Yemeni rebels intent on overthrowing the Saleh regime in Sana’a and installing an Islamic Caliphate in the country have, in the first weeks of the new year, been effectively employing hit-and-run tactics against government forces and avoiding civilian casualties. U.S. aid, which has nearly quadrupled since 2009, from $70 million to $250-$300 million, has done little to stem the violence. In part, this has been due to a misallocation of funds by Sana’a, which diverted a U.S.-trained counter-terrorism unit away from the hunt for Islamist militants to fight an ethnic insurgency in the north. There, a parallel conflict pits the government against a rebellious Shi’ite minority group known as the Houthis. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, an increasingly dangerous offshoot of the original al-Qaeda movement, is based in Yemen and has been fingered in terrorist plots targeting the U.S. homeland, including the failed Christmas Day (2009) bombing of an American airliner in Detroit. The plot was believed to have been inspired by Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical cleric now hiding in Yemen with U.S. citizenship and a kill-or-capture order on his head. (The Economist January 13, 2011; Global Post January 11, 2011)

LEBANON PLUNGED INTO CRISIS
A decision by Hezbollah, the radical Shi’ite militant group that controls a majority of seats in the Lebanese parliament, to pull out of the ruling coalition has toppled the Lebanese government. The move comes as a result of an impasse over how to handle a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. An attempt by Syria and Saudi Arabia, which back opposing factions in Lebanon, to mediate an agreement has failed. The results of the tribunal, which have been repeatedly delayed are expected in the coming weeks and will likely finger Hezbollah members in the killing. Hezbollah has deemed the tribunal illegitimate and insisted none of its fighters will be handed over to face legal action.

For the moment, Saad Hariri, Rafik’s son, remains the standing prime minister and neither Hezbollah nor its opponents in the Western-backed “March 14 Coalition” look interested in escalating tensions. But the prospect for a return to violence hangs over the country. In 2008, tensions between Hezbollah and supporters of the March 14 coalition turned violent, and Hezbollah easily dispatched its opponents, seizing parts of Beirut with relative ease. However, Hezbollah’s strength presents a dilemma of its own, says Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group. “They see the trap of either backing down, and losing credibility, or acting on their threat and paying a price in terms of their image.” (New York Times January 13, 2011)