BOOSTING YEMEN’S SPECIAL FORCES
The Obama administration plans to double the size of a Yemeni special forces unit dedicated to hunting al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the Bin Laden network’s most potent offshoot, which is headquartered in Yemen. The U.S. will reportedly spend $75 million to train the elite Yemeni military unit; the funds are to supplement $35 million already earmarked to Yemen for military assistance, and $70 million in economic aid to the country. In early February, the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Michael Leiter, described AQAP as the biggest threat to homeland security.
The aid comes at a sensitive time for the regime in Sana’a. The Yemeni government has been shaken in recent weeks by the wave of opposition protests that have spread across the Middle East. In a failed attempt to assuage the demonstrators’ concerns, President Ali Abdullah Saleh vowed not to stand for re-election in 2013. More recently, Saleh offered to form a national unity government that included the country’s opposition forces. However, that offer has now been rejected as well. (Washington Post, February 28, 2011; Reuters, February 14, 2011)
A SECOND NUKE SITE IN SYRIA?
Commercial satellites have indentified what appears to be a second secret nuclear installation in Syria. In 2007, an Israeli airstrike destroyed what many experts believe to have been a secret nuclear facility designed to build atomic weapons. A follow-up visit to the site eight months later by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found traces of processed uranium. Syria, however, has refused requests by the IAEA for inspections of other sites the watchdog group suspects could be part of a covert Syrian nuclear program. The new images come courtesy of the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a nonproliferation think-tank. They depict a building on the outskirts of the Syrian town of Marj which, ISIS believes, is housing uranium conversion equipment. (Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2011)
OMAN FACES RARE BOUT OF PROTESTS
The sleepy Gulf state of Oman, which had until now avoided the social unrest that has overtaken much of the Arab Middle East, is finally showing signs of public discontent. On February 27th, some 2,000 people gathered in a public square in the port city of Sohar demanding “political reforms, more jobs and better pay.” The protesters were met by riot police wielding tear gas, batons and rubber bullets. In the clashes that followed, two people were reported killed and residents claimed the army was called in with helicopter support but that the city remained calm. Shortly afterward, Oman’s long-serving leader, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, announced a series of economic concessions, outlining plans to create 50,000 new jobs and $386 apiece given to Omani job seekers. (New York Times, February 27, 2011)
BAHRAIN OPPOSITION FIGURE RETURNS FROM EXILE
The tiny Gulf island kingdom of Bahrain, now several weeks into its own set of popular street protests, is also pursuing a policy of carrots to assuage the opposition’s concerns. The Sunni ruling family (Bahrain is majority Shi’ite) fired three cabinet ministers after the army fired on civilian protesters in mid-February, and the government recently lifted a ban on the return of a major opposition figure, Hassan Mushaima, who has since done so. In an address to a crowd of protesters following his return, Mushaima called for peaceful protests but also rejected calls for dialogue and glorified martyrdom. In a tribute to “our brave brothers who have opened their chests to the military,” Mushaima insisted, “Those who are willing to die in the name of God – God will promise them victory.” (New York Times, February 26, 2011)
RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILES TO SYRIA STILL ON TRACK
Russia appears to be moving forward with a large – and controversial – arms sale to Syria despite the wave of protests sweeping the Middle East and stiff opposition from Israel and the West. The deal involves 72 advanced Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles worth some $300 million dollars in total. An agreement for the missiles was reached in 2007, but Russia will not confirm that it has actually delivered any of the missiles yet. Russia’s Defense Minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, recently stated that the contract was still “in the implementation stage.” Russian officials also recently denied that the Kremlin had agreed to sell Syria its most advanced MiG-31 fighter aircraft, although Russia’s state arms export corporation has confirmed Syria is receiving MiG-29s, short-range air defense systems and armored vehicles.
In related news, officials in Moscow are concerned that the wave of protests sweeping Arab autocrats from power in the Middle East and North Africa might bode ill for Russia’s arms export business. Some Gulf regimes have been loyal clients of Moscow’s, dating back to the Soviet era. According to Serdyukov, “There is a chance we might lose something… But I hope that the main weapons and military equipment agreements will be fulfilled.” (Defense News February 26, 2011)
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