US LOOKS TO EXPAND NDN
America is “rapidly expanding” the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a series of logistics supply routes to Afghanistan through Central Asia, in an attempt to lessen its dependence on Pakistani supply lines. As recently as 2009, the U.S. relied on Pakistan to move 90% of its surface cargo to Afghanistan via two road links. These remain the fastest and cheapest mode of transport, but have limited Washington’s leverage as it has pressed Islamabad to crack down on Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan’s border regions. Since 2009, however, the U.S. has managed to materially reduce that dependency by opening up new supply routes through Russia and Central Asia, which now account for nearly 40% of the surface cargo into landlocked Afghanistan. Pakistan has at times threatened to cut off U.S. access to Afghanistan, and on several occasions has temporarily closed the major crossing point through the Khyber Pass to protest U.S. policies.
The NDN, which one Pentagon official calls a “logistics miracle,” now includes a “spiderweb” of supply routes: “Some start at Baltic seaports and run through Russia and Central Asia by rail. Another key line picks up traffic on the Black Sea and funnels it through the Caucasus region. One winding truck route begins at a U.S. Army depot at Germersheim, Germany, and ends… 60 days later, at Bagram air base in Afghanistan.” Uzbekistan is the major focal point of the spiderweb, accounting for roughly 80% of the supplies that pass through NDN. (Washington Post July 2, 2011)
CHAOS IN THE SINAI
As Egyptians have struggled to form a new government and constitution in the wake of the overthrow of longtime Egyptian strongman, Hosni Mubarak, Bedouins, Islamist groups, and criminals have taken advantage of the political vacuum in Cairo to gain a larger foothold in the Sinai. This strategic peninsula connecting North Africa to the Eurasian landmass has a history of lawlessness and the Egyptian state has exerted only limited control over the Bedouin tribes of the region, which were repressed and branded as outlaws during the Mubarak era. Now the tribes are taking revenge, bombing a natural gas pipeline into Israel that constitutes 40% of that country’s supply no less than five times this year, grinding Egyptian natural gas exports to a halt. Even more problematic, Islamist extremists have carved out an ever-growing niche in the Sinai, as evidenced by a string of attacks in Israel on August 18 that killed eight Israelis. The Israeli government identified the attackers as militants from the Gaza Strip who snuck into Israel from the Sinai. Egyptian forces in the Sinai have not been spared either; on the same day as the Israel attack, a suicide bomber killed an Egyptian officer and injured two others near the Sinai town of Taba. Meanwhile, flyers from “al Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula” have been distributed in Sinai neighborhoods condemning the Israel-Egyptian peace treaty while Islamist groups have been staging protests calling for the creation of an Islamic state and terrorizing residents in the town of el-Arish, prompting an anti-terror crackdown by Egyptian security forces there in August. (Foreign Policy August 24, 2011)
SYRIA FACES GROWING ISOLATION ABROAD
With the fall of the Libyan regime in August, there still remains one Middle Eastern dictator openly at war with his people. In Syria perhaps the bloodiest chapter of the Arab Spring is still being written, as peaceful protesters continue to face growing brutality by the regime of Bashar al Assad. Some international observers believe as many as 2,000 Syrian civilians have been killed thus far in five months of protests. But while the Syrian military is enjoying tactical victories over unarmed protesters, Syria is suffering heavy losses in the international arena. On September 2, the European Union announced unprecedented sanctions on Syrian oil exports, joining a growing chorus of countries that have condemned the regime and imposed their own sanctions on Damascus. In announcing the sanctions, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned that “President Assad is carrying out massacres in his own country. The whole international community is urging him to relinquish power.” Indeed, even regional powerhouse Turkey, which had been cultivating better ties with Syria over the past few years, has turned against the Assad regime, with Turkey’s prime minister condemning the regime’s brutality and insisting he had “lost confidence” in Syria’s leaders, while Turkey’s foreign ministers has for the first time established contact with Syrian opposition leaders. (Reuters September 2, 2011; Voice of America August 29, 2011)
MORE CALLS FOR PA TO END STATEHOOD BID
Jordan’s King Abdullah II has become the latest world leader to criticize the Palestinian Authority’s proposed effort to unilaterally declare statehood at the UN General Assembly on September 20. According to a Saudi newspaper, Abdullah II consulted with a team of international lawyers and urged Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to reconsider the statehood bid, arguing that such a move might result in the loss of the “right of return” for Palestinian refugees. The concern was echoed by Guy Goodwin-Gill, a legal expert at Oxford, who argued that Palestinian refugees risk losing “their entitlement to equal representation” were the statehood bid to succeed. However, Abbas, who unlike his rivals in Hamas opposes violent resistance, remains undeterred, insisting that the effort will move forward and that 122 countries have already voiced their support. Observers in the region and beyond have expressed fear that the statehood bid could spark another round of violence if Palestinian expectations are unduly raised and the vote fails to translate into tangible changes to the conditions on the ground, as many expect. (Jerusalem Post August 31, 2011)