Eurasia Security Watch: No. 246

TURKEY HOSTS ARMED SYRIAN OPPOSITION
Amid heightened tensions between Turkey and Syria over the latter’s brutal suppression of public protests, it has been revealed that Turkey is hosting an armed opposition group committed to overthrowing the government in Damascus. The commander of the Free Syrian Army, a militia of Syrian army defectors, and dozens of the group’s members are reportedly operating out of a heavily guarded refugee camp in Turkey protected by the Turkish military. The Turkish government insists it is simply providing humanitarian relief to Syrian refugees. However, the Turkish military recently arranged for an interview the with the Free Syrian Army’s leader, Colonel As’aad in the office of a local government official. Col. As’aad reportedly arrived “protected by a contingent of 10 heavily armed Turkish soldiers,” and told journalists his group would “fight the regime until it falls and build a new period of stability and safety in Syria.” Col. As’aad added “If the international community provides weapons, we can topple the regime in a very, very short time.” Turkey has also extended support to the Syrian National Council, a conglomerate of opposition groups, and is expected to impose sanctions on Syria in the near future. (New York Times October 27, 2011)

SAUDI SUCCESSION RESHUFFLE
Saudi Arabia’s defense minister and the second in line to the Saudi throne, crown prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, died in New York in October from what many believe to be cancer. Sultan’s death reignited a debate about the Saudi succession process, as the first generation of sons of Saudi Arabia’s founder, King Abdulaziz ibn Saud, are all aging and infirmed. (Only 19 of Saud’s 45 sons are still alive and most are in their 70s and 80s; the current king, Abdullah, is in his late 80s and frequently dealing with medical issues). The succession debate was temporarily silenced when King Abdullah named the 77-year-old interior minister, Prince Nayef, as the new crown prince. The decision posed the first test for the new Allegiance Council, a special committee established five years ago to govern the succession process. The Council approved the nomination of Nayef, who was appointed as second deputy prime minister in 2009. Nayef has earned a reputation as a hardliner over his 36 years as the country’s defense minister, blocking liberal reforms and cracking down on political dissidents. (Wall Street Journal October 28, 2011)

US DRONE BASE IN ETHIOPIA
The United States Air Force has established a base in Ethiopia where it operates unmanned aerial drones for counterterrorism missions in the horn of Africa. The Air Force has invested millions of dollars to upgrade a remote airport in southern Ethiopia where it has added a “small annex to house a fleet of drones that can be equipped with Hellfire missiles and satellite-guided bombs.” These Reaper drones began flying missions over neighboring, war-torn Somalia earlier this year, where the al Qaeda-linked al Shabab militant group is waging a war against the weak Somali government. The drones are operating out of the Arba Minch airport with the cooperation of the Ethiopian government and the U.S. says they have only been used for surveillance and intelligence, although armed U.S. drones strikes have reportedly carried out strikes in Somalia in recent years. To combat al Shabab, the United States has also bolstered its CIA presence in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, carried out Special Operations missions inside Somalia, and bolstered funding for African peacekeeping forces fighting al Shabab in Somalia. (Washington Post October 27, 2011)

LIBYAN ARMS MAKE WAY TO GAZA STRIP
Several reports have surfaced recently concerning the smuggling of advanced weapons out of war-torn Libya and into the Gaza Strip, particularly anti-aircraft missiles. In the chaos of the civil war that unseated Col. Moammar Gaddafi , several military storage facilities have been looted and large quantities of weapons are reported missing. Arms smugglers are believed to have transferred a number of these weapons, particularly shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, to Islamist militants in the Gaza Strip (and, reportedly, Somalia) for use against Israel. These weapons systems are capable of targeting Israeli military aircraft but, potentially more troubling, also civilian airliners (the Israeli airport at Eilat is less than five miles from the Gaza border). The development has alarmed Washington, which recently announced it will provide millions in aid to Libya’s new government in an attempt to combat arms smuggling, while Israeli officials are discussing new ways of protecting civilian airliners against anti-aircraft missiles. (Ha’aretz October 27, 2011)