US REPOSITIONING FORCES IN REGION AFTER IRAQ WITHDRAWAL
With the last remaining U.S. forces in Iraq rapidly withdrawing ahead of a year-end deadline, the Obama administration is mulling a reorientation of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East. The move envisioned by the administration could include stationing new ground combat forces stationed in Kuwait as well as sending more naval ships to the region, although the precise size of the expanded force in Kuwait is still being negotiated. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently told military personnel that the U.S. had 23,000 troops currently in Kuwait and 40,000 in the broader region (excluding Iraq). In the period between the two Gulf wars (1991 to 2003), the U.S. “kept at least a combat battalion – and sometimes a full combat brigade – in Kuwait year-round, along with an enormous arsenal.” Elsewhere, the administration is looking to cement defense ties with the six Sunni Arab nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently outlined a proposal for a stronger, multilateral security alliance -- including integrating air and naval patrols as well as missile defense systems -- with the GCC on the sidelines of the United Nations summit in New York in September. (The New York Times October 29, 2011)
AS US-PAK TIES SOUR, IMPORTANCE OF NDN GROWS
U.S.-Pakistan relations were already on the brink of collapse before a NATO airstrike accidentally killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in a mysterious friendly fire incident earlier this month. Part of the backlash to that airstrike has been a closing of the two main Pakistani road links into Afghanistan through which some 30% of U.S. supplies must travel. The logjam at the Pakistani crossings has again focused U.S. attention on the only viable alternative supply network through Central Asia, the Northern Distribution Network. In 2008, Russia first offered transit for nonlethal equipment and the first supplies crossed that country in May 2009, just as the U.S. surge in Afghanistan began.
The network consists of several overland routes into Afghanistan. The main one begins in Riga, Latvia, and travels by train across Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan before entering Afghanistan. Other routes in the network begin at Ponti, Georgia and Vladivostok, Russia, and some supplies enter Afghanistan through Tajikistan. The U.S. has rapidly expanded the capacity of the network, which now accounts for 40% of U.S. supplies coming into Afghanistan, but it cannot carry ammunition or weapons, which must be airlifted in to Bagram and Kandahar airbases. However, with airlifting supplies costing some ten times more ($14,000 per ton) than moving supplies overland, there are strict limits on the volume of goods that can be airlifted. All of which suggests if Pakistan keeps the Afghan border crossings closed, U.S. reliance on the NDN is set to grow dramatically and it will have to negotiate deals with partner states to allow for lethal supplies to transit their countries. (CNN November 29, 2011)
US ORDERED TO LEAVE MANAS IN 2014
Just as U.S. reliance on alternative logistics routes into Afghanistan is set to grow, Washington has been ordered to leave its most critical airbase in Central Asia by 2014. The Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan has served a central hub for moving troops in and out of Afghanistan and refueling fighter jets for a decade. However, Kyrgyzstan’s new president, Almazbek Atambayev, who was sworn in December 1, has promised to close the American airbase when the current agreement expires in two years. “We know that the United States is often engaged in conflict… I would not want for one of these countries to launch a retaliatory strike on the military base,” Atambayev explained shortly after winning the October 30 election. Russia – which is popular inside Kyrgyrzstan, a former Soviet Republic – has in the past pressured Bishkek to evict the U.S. from Manas, though Moscow only succeeded in raising Washington’s rent payments. However, Moscow has repeatedly professed support for U.S. goals in Afghanistan. In 2009, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates explained “The Russians are trying to have it both ways… On one hand [they’re] making positive noises about working with us in Afghanistan, and on the other [they’re] working against us in terms of that airfield which is clearly important to us.” (Al Jazeera December 6, 2011)
IRAN LEVELS THREATS AT TURKEY
Its been several weeks since Syria’s brutal crackdown on democracy protesters soured its relations with neighboring Turkey. Indeed, Turkey is now playing host to the Free Syrian Army, an armed opposition rebel group seeking the overthrow of the Assad regime in Damascus. But there’s new evidence that Turkey’s anti-Syria stance is plunging its relations with Syria’s premier regional ally Iran to new lows, with senior Iranian officials now voicing open threats against the government in Ankara. Last month, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency quoted the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace division as saying “We are ready to attack NATOs missile shield in Turkey if we face a threat.” Then, on December 8, Iranian lawmaker Hossein Ibrahimi told the daily Sharq that “Targeting the missile defense shield on Turkish territory would be a certain and natural reaction in the event of any threat emanating from that country.” Finally, on December 14, an influential member of the state Expedia Council, Hassan Rohani, told an Iranian daily that “Turkey is going beyond the limit” in supporting the Syrian opposition. The not-so-veiled threats by Iranian officials were enough to prompt a call by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to his Iranian counterpart, who insisted he “made the necessary warning to those who make irresponsible and senseless statements.” (Reuters December 14, 2011)
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