Eurasia Security Watch: No. 254

MUBARAK TRIAL VERDICT POSTPONED

The fate of deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will be determined June 2 when the verdict in his trial is announced, according to a statement by an Egyptian judge February 22. This date is much later than previously expected, with many believing that the deliberations would be completed in April before the presidential election in May. Mubarak faces charges of “complicity in the killing of protestors” during Egypt’s revolution, which forcibly removed him from power last year, as well as accusations of graft in a separate case. Experts fear that a not-guilty verdict, which many believe possible due to lack of evidence, would spark further protests in the country and upset the current stability. Despite Mubarak’s plea of innocence, he remained silent February 22 when given the opportunity to speak on the last day of his trial. (February 22, Washington Post)

AZERBAIJAN STUCK IN BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN

Azerbaijan announced February 21 that it has uncovered an Iranian terrorist cell within its country, which was plotting against “foreign nationals.” Attempting to fend off growing questions about relations with Iran, its neighbor and fellow majority-Shiite nation, the director of the political and public policy department, Ali Hasanov, stated, “There are people who are trying to create tensions…There is no benefit either for Iran or for Azerbaijan.” The government has been quiet about this event and other similar incidents that have occurred recently in its country, which may point to Azerbaijan as a growing hub for Iranian terrorism. In January, details came out about an attempted assassination of the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan and other Israeli officials within the country. Tehran has criticized the government in Baku of letting Israeli operatives conspire against Iran’s nuclear program within its country and expressed frustration at the detention of an Iranian reporter in connection with terrorism charges. Most recently, the terrorist cell within Azerbaijan purportedly includes members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah. (February 22, EurasiaNet)

UZBEKISTAN'S SECURITY FORCES ELIMINATING POLITICAL OPPONENTS?

Obid-kori Nazarov, a famous imam from Uzbekistan, narrowly survived an assassination attempt on February 22 in his home in Sweden, and is alive and recovering in the hospital. Nazarov is considered by some as “one of the most powerful opponents of the regime,” but he refutes claims that he actively opposes the government and maintains he is a victim of the administration’s repression of dissidents. Uzbekistan’s security apparatus has been connected to several assassinations in recent years of political opponents. In 2011, a supporter of the exiled opposition movement, Fuad Rustamhojaev, was killed in Russia by gunshot, and in 2011, an outspoken journalist, Alisher Saipoc was killed in Kyrgyzstan. Nazarov was a very influential cleric in Uzbekistan in the 1990s, but was forced to flee to Kazakhstan in 1998 when the government called for his arrest for “terrorism and extremism.” He moved to Europe after gaining U.N. refugee status in 2006. Reports of his condition are controversial with some claiming his state is “serious but stable” and others saying he is in “critical” condition. (February 23, EurasiaNet)

FROM CAMP ASHRAF TO CAMP HURRIYA

Residents of Camp Ashraf in Iraq are being relocated to a former U.S. military base in Baghdad before resettlement abroad in a move shrouded in controversy between the the U.N., Iraq, and the camp’s resident’s the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK). Saddam Hussein created Camp Ashraf as a safe haven for the MEK, an Iranian dissident group, in 1986 during the Iran-Iraq War in an attempt to partner with the group, which actively opposed the Iranian regime. The MEK is considered a terrorist organization by both Iran and the United States, but the U.S. has taken a less hostile stance toward them during the Iraq war, protecting them as “noncombatants” under the Geneva Convention. Some reports claim that the MEK even provided the U.S. intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program in the early 2000s. The MEK, among many attacks aimed at undermining the Iranian regime, killed several Americans in Iran in the 1970s and targeted the Iranian mission to the U.N. in the 1990s. Four hundred of the 3,000 members of Camp Ashraf have been transferred to Camp Hurriya, formerly U.S. military base Camp Liberty, under a U.N.-sanctioned relocation plan. The MEK has voiced criticism about the temporary base, claiming they have been subjected to “degrading, humiliating and inhumane treatment” and calling their new home a “prison.” (February 18, CNN)

[Editor’s Note: The movement of residents of Camp Ashraf may be as a result of the new power-sharing coalition government within Iraq. Under Saddam Hussein, the regime was controlled solely by Sunni factions, while the current government is dominated by Shiite parties, diminishing support of the MEK in Baghdad. Iran, a majority Shiite country, maintains great influence in Iraqi society and government and the new policy reflects as much.]