Eurasia Security Watch: No. 261

THE FAILED UN SYRIA MISSION
The 300 UN observers who were sent to Syria after the government and opposition agreed to implement UN and Arab League Envoy Kofi Annan’s six-point peace plan have been ordered to suspend patrols and to “remain in place.” This comes days after the mission came under attack on its way to visit the town of Al-Haffeh in Latakiya. It has become increasingly apparent to both sides that the UN mission has failed. The Assad regime responded to the suspension of the UN observers by saying it understood the decision. In a rare moment of agreement, Syrian National Council member Bassam Imadi said “I think it is time to announce that the mission has failed—even the whole initiative of Mr. Annan has failed.” The UN Security Council now has until July 15 to decide whether to renew the mission to Syria. Turkey has been outspoken on the matter, with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu calling on the UN Security Council to act immediately and not allow “the extension of this human tragedy.” (VOA News—June 16, 2012)

THE HOUSE OF SAUD NAMES A NEW CROWN PRINCE
Saudi prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, who governed Riyadh for 50 years and who recently was tapped to become Saudi Arabia’s defense minister, has been officially named Crown Prince, placing him next in line for the Saudi throne. He received the honor after the sudden death of the former crown prince, Nayef bin Albdulaziz al Saud. Prince Salman was considered a natural choice due to his reputation as an “austere, hard-working family disciplinarian.” Saudi analysts peg him as a “moderate conservative” and he has been described as disciplined, active, austere, sober and traditional but not hard-line. It is not believed that this decision will, in the short term, affect any major policies. However, with the death of the former crown prince and Crown Prince Salman being 76, the era of Saudi Arabia’s “second generation” of princes is coming to an end. How the succession process will play out among the thousands of “third generation” princes, remains shrouded in mystery. (New York Times—June 18, 2012)

PALESTINIAN ANTI-CORRUPTION COURT: A STEP FORWARD OR A POLITICAL PLOY?
The late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s former economic adviser, Mohammed Rashid, is the first high profile politician to be convicted by the two-year-old court charged with combatting corruption. It was alleged that the former economic advisor had embezzled millions of dollars during his tenure. The verdict has been praised by some analysts as “a positive step for a Palestinian system long plagued by graft.” A growing number of observers, however, see this verdict as a move by the dominant Fatah political party to suppress critics, wondering aloud why the government is going after a Fatah opponent who has lived outside the Palestinian Territories for a good part of the last decade. Hani al-Masri of the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies believes that the anti-corruption court and a successful conviction “would be more powerful if it were taken against someone inside the political system.” The head of the anti-corruption commission, Rafik Aal- Natshe, defended the court’s actions, saying that the “[commission] is willing to charge anyone it can build a case against—including Abbas and other top leaders.” He went on to add that the commission and court is “100%, totally independent.” Of the 80 cases investigated by the commission, few have led to charges against prominent officials and only Rashid’s trial has resulted in a verdict. (Washington Post—June 20, 2012)

IS THE ASSAD REGIME BEGINNING TO CRACK?
After 15 months of civil war, it is being reported that senior Syrian officials are making plans to defect to the country’s opposition. According to a report, members of the regime have started establishing contacts with representatives from Western governments as well as moving large sums of money into foreign bank accounts in Lebanon and China. On June 21, a colonel in the Syrian air force, Hassan Merei al-Hamade, defected to Jordan. The Syrian air force is considered particularly loyal to the Assad regime. A senior member of the Syrian opposition confirmed that opposition groups were seeking American assistance in encouraging defections and was quoted as saying, “I know for sure there are some high-ranking officers who are waiting for the right chance to defect…There are rumors that there is one who is really close to the president and we are expecting to see him out of the country soon.” Later in the week, Turkey’s state run Anadolu news agency announced a mass defection of 33 soldiers and their families, including a general and two colonels for a total of 224 soldiers. A government official, however, said the group included three colonels and no general, but did not know the overall number of defectors. (Ha'aretz—June 22, 2012; MSNBC— June 25, 2012)