Eurasia Security Watch: No. 262

QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT MORSI'S AUTHORITY
While a new constitution, the economy and security will remain top priorities for the new administration of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, Yasser Ali, a Morsi spokesman, said that the president’s key concern was political stability. Field Marshal Tantawi, head of the military-led Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that still wields most of the power in Egypt, said that the military would “stand by the elected, legitimate president and will cooperate with him for the stability of the country.” However, many questions remain about Morsi’s actual authority and ability to rule after recent decrees issued by the SCAF. These included giving arrest authority back to Egyptian soldiers, dissolving the new parliament , returning legislative powers to the SCAF and reinforcing the military body’s role in the drafting of a permanent constitution, putting Egypt’s national security policy firmly back in the hands of the SCAF. Ehmad Abdel-Ghaffour, head of the ultra-conservative Islamist al-Nour party, told the Associated Press that although the presidential election had eased tensions, there was still a great deal of negotiations ahead between the Islamist parties and the SCAF on the new president’s powers. (BBC—June 25, 2012)

TURKEY CONTEMPLATES OPTIONS AFTER SYRIA DOWNS WARPLANE
The recent downing of a Turkish military jet by Syrian anti-aircraft batteries has put forced once-cordial Turkish-Syrian relations to a new low. Ankara’s initial response was to call a meeting of NATO member states under Article 4 of NATO’s charter, which stipulates that consultation can be requested when an ally feels their security is threatened. The decision was designed to ensure Turkey received “the strongest backing once it decides its official response.” Turkey claims that its F-4 Phantom was in international airspace when it was shot down, while Syria insists that the jet was engaged inside Syrian airspace and that it was believed to be an Israeli one. Turkey has dismissed Syria’s contentions and on June 24, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that any Syrian military unit approaching its border would be treated as a direct threat. Four days after this announcement, in what appears to be a show of resolve, Turkey began deploying anti-aircraft guns and other weapons alongside its border with Syria. (BBC— June 24, 2012; Time of Israel—June 28, 2012)

WHERE HAVE ALL THE KYRGYZ CHILDREN GONE?
A program that is sending Kyrgyz children as young as ten to Bangladesh to study at madrassas is at the center of a growing controversy in the Naryn Oblast province of Kyrgyzstan. The program sends children 1,500 miles to an undisclosed location in Bangladesh in a program that can last for more than a decade with little to no outside communication. Officials from Kyrgyzstan’s State National Security Committee (GKNB) assessed that “according to Article 6.5 of the Kyrgyz law on religious freedom, children can be sent abroad to study at high or secondary religious schools only after they have received their mandatory full secondary education [in Kyrgyzstan].” The committee accused the Muftiyat—Kyrgyzstan’s Islamic-affairs council—of colluding with a controversial and recently-blacklisted Islamic group Tablighi Jamaat in supporting this program. The Muftiyat has denied that it has any connection to the program or Tablighi Jamaat. This debate comes as Kyrgyzstan continues its drive to impose greater regulations on religious authorities amid rising fears of Islamist extremism. Kyrgyzstan’s neighbor, Tajikistan, moved “in the past year has moved to restrict foreign religious study for its citizens and has even banned children and teenagers from entering mosques.” (RFERL—June 19, 2012)

U.S., ISRAEL TO HOLD 'DRESS REHEARSAL' FOR POTENTIAL MILITARY CONFLICT WITH IRAN
Amid continued unrest in Syria and growing concern over Iran’s nuclear program, Israel and the U.S. have announced their largest-ever joint military exercise. The exercise will be held in October, reportedly featuring 3,000 U.S. soldiers alongside thousands of Israeli troops. It will include advanced anti-missile defense systems and simulate simultaneous missile launches from Iran and Syria. The simulated fire will test the upgraded Arrow 2 defense system, fielded by the IDF, while the U.S. will deploy the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System and Pac-3 Patriot air defense platform. According to the Hebrew language newspaper Maariv, some military analysts have noted that this “dress rehearsal” for a potential military conflict is meant to send a clear message to Iran at a time when the impact of international sanctions will be more apparent. (Times of Israel –June 25, 2012)