Eurasia Security Watch: No. 288

Related Categories: South Asia; Southeast Asia

ISLAMISTS UNHAPPY WITH EGYPT’S MORSI
Salafists in Egypt who hoped the election of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi would usher in a new era of Islamic law for Egypt are beginning to question the president’s Islamist credentials. Many Salafists hoped that by now, Morsi would have curtailed women’s rights and banned alcohol and dancing, among other tenets of sharia law. Liberals, on the other hand, worry that such initiatives will soon be on the agenda, and that Morsi has simply been hampered by a weak economy and an effective political opposition. Azza al-Garf, a female member of the supreme committee of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political wing said Salafists are living “in an alternative reality.” “We cant come to a country as exhausted as Egypt is and just declare sharia.” (The Washington Post, June 18, 2013)

U.S. AND RUSSIA CLASH ON SYRIA AT G-8
U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin clashed at the G-8 summit in Northern Ireland over the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. According to Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes, the tension stem from the U.S belief that Assad must eventually step down or be removed from power. The Russians disagree, and have been vocally displeased with talk of the U.S. implementing a no-fly zone over Syria to protect the Syrian rebels. Moscow argues that such an action would be “disrespectful of international laws.” (The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2013)

LEBANESE SUNNIS ANGRY OVER HEZBOLLAH’S INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA
As the civil war in Syria sharpens the sectarian divide in Lebanon, Sunnis in that country are finding themselves ill-prepared to oppose Hezbollah. Assassinations, most notably of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, have left Lebanese Sunnis without a unifying figure who can create an organized political movement, leaving them largely powerless to oppose Hezbollah, which is aided and armed by Iran. “The Shia in Lebanon have one strong political regional backing force — that is Iran...Sunnis don’t have a similar situation; there are so many Sunni countries with different political agendas who vie for influence,” says Imad Salamey, a professor at the Lebanese American University. (The Washington Post, June 12, 2013)

TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN AL-QAEDA AND THE AL-NUSRA FRONT
A dispute has arisen between al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Syrian-based al-Nusra front over a merger between the two groups. In April, al-Qaeda in Iraq announced that it had joined with al-Nusra (which, like the U.S., opposes the government of Bashar Assad) to create the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Al-Nusra argues that it was never informed of the union and does not support it. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of al-Qaeda’s global movement, decided last week to annul the merger, much to the dismay of al-Qaeda in Iraq and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Al-Baghdadi released a recording in which he said “The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant remains as long as we have a pulse or an eye that blinks....As for the message that was attributed to Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri, may Allah preserve him, we have with it several sharia and method-based issues.” (Reuters, June 15, 2013)

U.S. MULLS OPTIONS FOR SYRIA
The U.S. is considering options in Syria after making a decision to arm the country’s rebels. The first option being weighed is whether or not to establish a limited no-fly zone to protect the rebels. The no-fly zone would be enforced from Jordanian territory with Patriot missile batteries and F-16s. The planes involved in the no-fly zone would be launched from either ships in the Mediterranean or Red Sea, or possibly from Jordanian bases. Some military planners have argued that a no-fly zone would be a necessary prerequisite to arming the rebels.

Additionally, the U.S. is discussing what to do to prevent Syria’s chemical weapons from falling into the wrong hands. American military officials have been sent to Jordan to develop contingency plans, and Jordanian security forces are being trained to identify and secure chemical weapon sites. The 82nd Airborne Division has held training exercises with an Army unit specializing in handling chemical munitions and would likely be the first to deploy to recover chemical weapons in Syria. (The Wall Street Journal, June 13, 2013; The Washington Post, June 18, 2013)