Eurasia Security Watch: No. 294

Related Categories: Iraq; Israel; Middle East

NEW EGYPT PM SAYS NO BROTHERHOOD BAN
Hazem el-Beblawi, Egypt’s interim prime minister, said Tuesday that the Muslim Brotherhood would not be banned or excluded from politics after the army’s July 3 ousting of President Morsi. This rhetoric signals a change from Beblawi’s proposal on August 17 that the Brotherhood be dissolved. The Brotherhood, which was banned throughout Mubarak’s rule, won successive elections since 2011, including the presidential election that put Morsi in power. Internal violence has plagued the country since the military launched a crackdown on the Brotherhood after Morsi’s removal. El-Beblawi insists the Brotherhood shows no signs of desire to work with the government toward a political settlement and continues to call for Morsi’s reinstatement. The government says it will call parliamentary and presidential elections within months, after a new constitution is agreed. (Reuters August 28, 2013; Al Jazeera August 28, 2013)

JORDAN WILL NOT BE USED FOR ATTACK ON SYRIA
A Jordanian government spokesperson has insisted that "Jordan will not be a launching pad for any military action against Syria.” The statement comes after Jordan hosted a meeting of top commanders from Western and Middle Eastern countries to discuss means to enhance the security of Syria’s neighbors against possible attacks by the Assad regime. Should the U.S. conduct a strike on Syria in response to a government-sponsored chemical weapons attack, the offensive would likely involve cruise missile attacks from the sea and would not involve Jordanian territory. A staunch U.S. ally, Jordan is showing restraint to avoid possible retaliation from Syria or President Assad’s Iranian patrons. Jordan would prefer that the international community find “a diplomatic solution to the Syrian crisis.” (The Daily Star August 28, 2013)

TURKO-ISRAELI RELATIONS TAKE ANOTHER DOWNTURN
A large wave of new Syrian refugees crossed into Iraqi Kurdistan. Last Saturday alone, 10,000 Syrians crossed at Peshkhabour, marking what the UN High Commissioner for Refugees says is one of the biggest waves of refugees since the Syrian uprising began. The UN has said the reason for the influx is not clear, and UN agencies, NGOs and regional governments are straining to support the new arrivals. Some attribute the surge toward Iraqi Kurdistan to increased difficulties entering Turkey, and a decision by the government of Iraqi Kurdistan to play a more active role in Syrian crisis. (British Broadcasting Corporation August 18, 2013)

OPPOSITION REPORTS CHEMICAL WEAPONS USED IN SYRIA
The up-and-down Turko-Israeli relationship appears to be on another downward slide. Officials in both countries admit that talks meant to reconcile the relationship after a major rift over a 2010 Israeli raid on a flotilla bound for the Gaza Strip resulted in the deaths of eight Turkish citizens have collapsed. Little diplomatic progress has been made since that incident, and tensions were recently exacerbated by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's comments accusing Israel of being behind the military coup in Egypt. (Fox News August 28, 2013)

AL QAEDA TRAINING SYRIAN REBELS IN LIBYA
Benghazi is now a training center for al Qaeda terrorists, say U.S. intelligence officials, who discovered this month that the al-Qaeda affiliate Ansar al-Sharia is operating camps in Libya to prepare foreign jihadists to join Syria's Islamist rebels. The training camps, which have been operating since at least May, funnel fighters to rebel groups including the Al-Nursa Front, Syria's most organized Islamist rebel group. The report corroborates prior assessments that post-Qaddafi Libya has become a focal point for al Qaeda terrorist activity in North Africa and that Ansar al-Sharia is continuing to carry out terrorist exercises and is connected to jihadists in Syria and North Africa. (Fox News August 28, 2013)

IRAQ HIT WITH NEW WAVE OF VIOLENCE
At least 66 people have died and 150 wounded in a wave of car bombings in neighborhoods in and around Baghdad last week. This brings the number of deaths to over 500 in August. Insurgents used a variety of bombs in attacks that targeted commercial areas in predominantly Shiite areas, and a Shiite family was gunned down in a largely Sunni area. This new "wave of killing" has produced thousands of casualties since April. The most significant bout of bloodshed since 2008, the surge in attacks is raising concern that Iraq is again descending toward a sectarian civil war. The thus far unclaimed attacks appear to be the work of the Iraqi branch of al Qaeda, a group that frequently targets Shiites and favors coordinated bombings. This follows months of protests by Iraq's Sunni minority against the Shiite-led government beginning in late 2012, followed by a lethal security crackdown on a Sunni protest in April. (The Washington Post August 28, 2013)