Eurasia Security Watch: No. 297

Related Categories: Africa; Middle East

MB SPOKESMAN ARRESTED IN EGYPT
Gehad el-Haddad, the Muslim Brotherhood’s primary English-language spokesman and former Clinton Foundation employee, was arrested by Egyptian authorities on Tuesday in conjunction with the government’s crackdown on Morsi supporters. The crackdown has resulted in over one thousand deaths and thousands more arrests of Morsi supporters. While Haddad is being detained on suspicion of incitement of violence, Brotherhood supporters assert that the arrest is purely political. Journalists and activists have also been arrested on suspicion of displaying information that could paint the army and its supporters in an unfavorable light. (The Guardian September 17, 2013)

NATIONAL DIALOGUE TALKS IN BAHRAIN ON HOLD
In the midst of civil unrest, the decision by the Bahrain government to arrest a Wefaq party leader has pushed Shia opposition groups in Bahrain over the edge and caused five groups in the National Democratic Opposition Parties to suspend their talks with the government. The Sunni-led government (in a Shia-majority country) detained Khalil Marzook on terrorism charges on Monday, an action that Shia groups believe shows the Sunni authorities’ “contempt for the political process.” National dialogue talks commence in February in an effort to soothe a bout of sectarian civil unrest that has seized Bahrain since 2011. At least 80 people have been killed as mostly Shia activists advance their campaign of “demanding more rights and an end to discrimination against the majority Shia community by the Sunni royal family.” The government denies the accusations and alleges that Iran is stoking unrest among Bahraini Shia. The five National Democratic Opposition Parties groups say that their participation status in the talks with the government will be “continuously revised.” (BBC September 18, 2013)

OIL PRICES EASE ON LIBYA, SYRIA NEWS
As a diplomatic solution to Syria’s chemical weapons crisis seems plausible and as Libya resumes oil output, Brent crude oil prices have slipped towards $108 a barrel as of Wednesday. Strikes, militias and political activists have blocked the majority of Libya's oilfields and ports since late July and investors have been weary of the possible effects that a U.S. strike on Syria would have on the Middle East. El Sharara, one of Libya’s largest western oil fields, has been put back in play as workers resumed pumping on Monday and as a result, Libyan oil supplies are expected to rise from 400,000 to 450,000 barrels per day. However, oil output in Libya is still far below its pre-war level of 1.6 million bpd. A U.S Federal Reserve policy meeting beginning on Tuesday and lasting two days, where the central bank is expected to decide to start the reduction of its “massive, commodities-friendly stimulus program,” could provoke more selling. (Reuters September 18, 2013)

CAR BOMBING ON SYRIA-TURKEY BORDER
While an international diplomatic solution to the chemical weapons fiasco in Syria proceeds, the Syrian civil war continues spilling across its border, this time into Turkey. On September 16, a Syrian helicopter violated Turkish airspace and, after being warned repeatedly, was attacked by a Turkish warplane and landed inside Syria. The Syrian Armed Forces claim the helicopter entered Turkish territory “inadvertently” and was “on its way back” when it was shot down. The event marks the first time Turkey, a NATO member, has fired upon a Syrian aircraft since the civil war began and reflects Turkey’s frustration with the Assad regime. Only a day after the airspace incident, a car bomb killed seven people at a major crossing between Syria and Turkey in a possible retaliatory attack by Syria. In addition to the heightened tension with Turkey, there is growing concern that the Syrian government is intensifying its offensive against the rebels in the absence of U.S. action, and that the rebels are responding in kind. (Wall Street Journal September 16, 2013, New York Times September 16, 2013, Washington Post September 17, 2013)