EGYPT’S SISI COULD BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT
Amid continuing unrest in Egypt, the Egyptian people appear to be increasingly throwing their support behind General Abdel Fatah el-Sisi and his hard-line approach to the Muslim Brotherhood. While the international community has been concerned about the government crackdown on the Brotherhood, the majority of Egyptians want stability and they believe Sisi can provide it. The General has said he has no plans to run for president, but the wave of popularity may prove difficult to resist. Other possible candidates are holding back their own announcements until Sisi officially rules himself out. As much as a third of the country still supports ousted Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi, but there are many more who view him as an Islamist threat to a modern, secular Egypt. (The Guardian October 20, 2013)
EGYPT PLANS LNG IMPORTS, DESPITE ISRAELI GAS OFFERS
Egypt is working on a plan to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of importing gas via a pipeline from Israel. Israel has said it could provide Egypt with gas through a pipeline that already links them, but Egypt has decided go the more expensive route of renting a floating terminal, which it hopes will be operational by April, in order to receive LNG shipments. This past April Egypt dissolved a 20-year deal to supply gas to Israel. Since that deal was signed, Egypt's gas reserves have declined and large reserves of gas have been found off Israel's Mediterranean coast. (Reuters October 23, 2013)
SYRIAN OPPOSITION UNSURE ABOUT GENEVA 2
In May, the U.S. and Russia decided they would convene a "Geneva 2" peace conference to plan a transitional political process to end the war in Syria, but a date has not yet been set for the conference and with Assad possibly positioning himself for re-election, Geneva 2 could face obstacles in getting off the ground. The opposition, Western-backed National Coalition will meet soon to officially vote on whether or not to attend but a spokesman has said that it would likely decline invitations from Western and Arab countries to attend peace talks in Geneva. The group, which is currently in exile, said there would "not be any negotiations at all without making sure the Geneva 2 meeting is basically a transitional period and for Assad to go." (Reuters October 22, 2013)
KURDISH REBELS IN SYRIA MAY TURN SIGHTS ON ANKARA
Kurdish militias that have been busy fighting Islamist rebels in Syria are ready to reignite the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey unless Ankara reinstates the peace process and grants more rights and autonomy to the Kurds. Kurdish rebels have been at odds with the Turkish government for 30 years and now they are convinced that Turkey has been backing rebels in Syria fighting against the Kurds. Turkey denies that claim, and says it has held regular talks with the head of a Syrian Kurdish group close to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Talks began last year between the PKK and Turkish officials to end to conflict that has already killed 40,000 people, but the future of the talks now seem in doubt. (Reuters October 22, 2013)
SAUDI ARABIA REJECTS UN SEAT, MIFFED AT U.S.
Saudi Arabia rejected a long-sought after seat at the UN Security Council amid tensions with Washington over America’s approach toward Syria, Egypt, and Iran. In Syria Riyadh wanted the U.S. to more forcefully back the opposition to Assad; in Egypt Riyadh was outraged when the U.S. supported the ouster of longtime Saudi ally, Hosni Mubarak; and in Iran, the Saudis are critical of the Obama administration’s engagement with Tehran over its nuclear program.
It was a last-minute rejection, the first in the UN's history. Officially, Saudi Arabia attributed the rejection of the seat to the inefficiencies of the UN, particularly in regard to the Middle East. However, even with the current strain on the relationship, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to initiate a complete break with the U.S., and will continue purchasing arms from, and selling oil to the U.S., as well as cooperating on counterterrorism. (The Wall Street Journal October 18, 2013; CBS News, October 23, 2013)