Eurasia Security Watch: No. 310

SYRIAN TALKS STALL ON OPPOSITION DEMANDS
In Geneva UN mediator Lakhdar Brahimi was forced to cancel an afternoon negotiation session for Syrian peace talks over a disagreement about the goal of the talks. The opposition is demanding the Syrian government propose a plan for a transition of power while Damascus opposes any such proposal. The opposition is insisting that the government cooperate completely with the Geneva Communique, which would remove Bashar al-Assad from the presidency. The two sides failed to even begin talks about a political transition and no progress was made on the issues of pausing the fighting to allow humanitarian aid into the city of Homs. If the talks do not progress soon, Western diplomats may take the issue to the UN Security Council. (BBC News January 28, 2014, The New York Times January 28, 2014)

SISI GAINS SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENTIAL RUN
Egyptian Army Chief Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been riding a wave of popularity toward the presidency as the military simultaneously battles Islamist protests and terrorist attacks. Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announced Monday that it will endorse Sisi for the office. A day earlier, it was announced that presidential elections will come before parliamentary elections, after Egypt’s new constitution was approved with 98.1% of the vote this month.

TERRORISTS HIT CAIRO
Earlier in the weekend, on the third anniversary of Egypt’s Arab Spring uprising, thousands of Sisi supports gathered in Cairo while security forces clashed with anti-government demonstrators, killing 62 people nationwide. Finally, on Wednesday Egypt’s Al-Mal reported that Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) received $2 billion from Saudi Arabia to help stabilize foreign reserves. (CNN January 26, 2014, The Washington Post January 27, 2014, Ahram Online January 29, 2013)

ERDOGAN VISISTS IRAN TO SOOTHE TIES
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visited Iran this week to boost trade and energy ties and left with three trade deals in hand. The visit was focused on economic ties, but was also designed to mend an open rift over their support for opposing sides in the Syrian civil war. Some in Turkey see the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as providing an opening for a rapprochement. Turkey, heavily dependent on imports for its oil and gas needs, is hoping to increase imports from Tehran as international sanctions begin to ease. (Reuters

January 29, 2014)

U.S. TO LEASE AND SELL HELICOPTERS TO IRAQ
According to a Pentagon statement, the U.S. has reached an agreement with Baghdad that will allow it to buy and lease Apache attack helicopters. Iraq will be permitted to lease up to six Apaches this year and purchase two dozen more for delivery over the next three years. The Iraqi military says they will use these helicopters to fight the al Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which has overwhelmed parts of the Anbar province. The leasing deal is worth $1.37 billion and includes 154 Hellfire missiles, launchers, night-vision goggles, and other gear. The U.S. is also planning to train Iraqi troops in Jordan. The deal had been blocked since July due to concerns of Senator Robert Menendez, but has since been approved with promises from the State Department to monitor Iraqi usage of the aircraft. (Los Angeles Times January 27, 2014)

UPDATE ON SYRIAN CHEM WEAPONS
Syria will miss next week’s deadline to send all toxic agents abroad for destruction. According to sources, Syria has relinquished less than 5% of the approximately 1,300 metric tons of the toxic agents reported by Damascus. In a report to the UN Security Council this week, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said shipments had been unnecessarily delayed and urged Assad’s government to hasten the process. Damascus contends that the delays are due to security obstacles and that it needs more armored vehicles and communications. Syria is supposed to give up all the chemical weapons by mid-2014. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons will hold a meeting January 30 to address the delay. The lion’s share of the most toxic chemical substances will be neutralized at sea on a U.S. cargo ship that set sail for Italy on Monday. (The Washington Free Beacon January 29, 2014, Defense News January 28, 2014