Eurasia Security Watch: No. 311

AL QAEDA DISAVOWS ISIS
Al Qaeda has announced a split with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a radical jihadist group opposed to the Assad regime and spreading across Syria with the intention of establishing an Islamist caliphate. Al Qaeda’s decision reflects its dissatisfaction with ISIS’ hostility toward another al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra. The split also means that al Qaeda is no longer formally represented in Iraq. Al Qaeda’s dismissal of ISIS will likely not have a significant effect on the group, which has taken control of the northeastern province of Raqqah and parts of Aleppo, along with many of the area’s resources. A State Department official commented that no policy changes are being anticipated in response al Qaeda’s announcement. (The Washington Post February 3, 2014)

SYRIAN PEACE TALKS, CHEM WEAPONS UPDATE
According to senior Russian officials, both the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime have agreed to attend the next round of peace talks in Geneva, beginning February 10. The announcement follows talks in Moscow between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Syrian National Coalition chairman Ahmad Jarba. The opposition coalition submitted a report to Moscow about human rights violations perpetrated by the Assad regime and asked Russia to respond to the humanitarian crisis in Syria. Jarba claimed the two sides agreed to implement the outline from the first Geneva meeting and estimates there will be more meetings in Moscow in the coming weeks few weeks. A forum including the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey will run parallel to Geneva.

Additionally, Russia announced that Syria will be sending a large shipment of chemical weapons out of the country in February and will export its entire stockpile by March 1. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Gennady Gatilov, defended Syria’s explanations for missing the deadline to get all chemical agents out of the country by February 5, citing security risks. (Haaretz February 5, 2014, The New York Times February 4, 2014)

50 AMERICANS HAVE JOINED EXTREMIST GROUPS IN SYRIA
U.S. intelligence officials confirm that at least 50 Americans have gone to Syria to fight alongside extremist groups to overthrow Assad. The Syrian civil war has attracted international Islamist militants and the Director of National Intelligence claims that “7,500 or so” foreign combatants from 50 countries are now in Syria. Al Qaeda and other global jihadist groups are training these foreigners at camps in Syria and Iraq and fears are growing they will use these locations as “launching pads” for possible attacks on the West. U.S. counterterrorism officials are actively trying to track U.S. veterans of the Syrian war who have returned home. (The Los Angeles Times February 4, 2014)

TURKEY ASKS GERMANY TO SUPPORT ITS BID FOR EU
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan asked Germany to support his country’s bid to join the EU during a visit to Berlin this month. Erdogan said they Turkish membership would benefit the bloc and continued with his mantra that “the EU needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the EU.” Last week, Erdogan gained cautious support for the EU bid from French President Francois Hollande, but German President Angela Merkel is still skeptical of full Turkish membership. However, Merkel said she did support unblocking two crucial chapters in accession talks (chapters 23 and 24). Merkel also said an exchange would be held in judicial matters between Germany and Turkey. (Euronews February 4, 2014)

LIBYA DESTROYS ALL CHEMICAL WEAPONS
A process ten years in the making has reached its goal as Libya’s foreign minister announced that Libya has destroyed its chemical weapons arsenal, including bombs and artillery shells filled with mustard gas. Tripoli committed itself to destroying its arsenal when it agreed to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention in 2004. When longtime strongman Moammar Gaddafi was removed from power, the country's new rulers told international inspectors about previously undeclared chemical stocks and set to the task of destroying them. Libya had extensive international support and assistance from the U.S., Canada, and Germany in getting rid of the Category 1 chemical weapons by January 26. Category 2 chemicals will be eliminated by December 2016. (BBC News February 4, 2014)