Eurasia Security Watch: No. 324

ISIL DECLARES ISLAMIC STATE
In late June, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) declared its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the caliph of the Muslim world. They added that the land they have claimed in Syria and Iraq has become part of a new Islamic state. Though ISIL is a militant Sunni group, the announcement that al-Baghdadi is the leader of Muslims everywhere poses a threat not only to Shi’ites – which ISIL has declared are heretics that deserve to be killed -- but to the credibility of other Sunni militant outfits as well, particularly al Qaeda. The Iraqi and Syrian governments remain locked in a fierce conflict with ISIL and its allies operating in a large, lawless region that crosses the unmanned border. (Reuters June 30, 2014)

ARMED U.S. DRONES TO FLY OVER BAGHDAD
The Obama administration has committed to sending nearly 800 troops to aid the Iraqi government in its battle against ISIL, including senior military advisors. With the deployment the administration has also authorized the use of drones in Baghdad to offer protection to U.S. forces there. According to the Defense Department’s press secretary, the drones became a necessity due to the number of military advisors required to work outside of the normal confines of the embassy. The Obama Administration is understood to be reviewing plans to use the drones in a more offensive capacity against the advancing rebel forces. (Al Jazeera June 27, 2014)

BODIES OF KIDNAPPED ISRAELIS FOUND
The bodies of the three Israeli teenagers kidnapped two weeks ago were found last Monday after the boys were shot to death and left in partial graves. Immediately following the discovery of the bodies, Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a statement blaming Hamas for the murders and promising retribution. The following day Israel conducted airstrikes in the Gaza strip, striking 34 targets in response to 18 rockets fired from Gaza into Israel. On Wednesday the body of a sixteen year old Palestinian boy was found after he was reported to have been dragged into a white van. Netanyahu has denounced the violence on both sides and urged citizens to not take the law into their own hands. (USA Today July 1, 2014, Reuters July 2, 2014).

KURDS MOVE TOWARD INDEPENDENCE
As ISIL has advanced in Iraq, the Kurds have seized the opportunity to take important, contested, and in some cases energy-rich territory on the north like the city of Kirkuk. Until this week, Kurdish leaders had dismissed talk of a push for outright independence, but now that has changed. Massoud Barzani, the president of the autonomous Kurdish region has asked members of parliament to form a committee to organize a referendum on Kurdish independence. Barzani told the BBC only days ago that a referendum was “months away.” “Iraq is effectively partitioned now; should we stay in this tragic situation that Iraq is living?.” Barzani added that “independence is a natural right of the people of Kurdistan. All these developments reaffirm that.” ISIL, meanwhile, is consolidating its control over the Iraq-Syria border, and after Iraqi border guards withdrew from the Iraq-Saudi border, the Kingdom was forced to deploy 30,000 to secure the country from “terrorist threats.” (The Guardian July 3, 2014)

TURKEY AND ISRAEL MIXED ON KURDISH INDEPENDENCE
Over the past week senior officials in Israel and Turkey raised eyebrows after giving indications they would support Kurdish independence from Iraq. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Sunday that supported the Kurds “aspiration for independence,” explaining that they were “a fighting people that has proved its political commitment, political moderation and deserves political independence.” And on June 20, Israel took its first delivery of oil from a new pipeline running from Iraqi Kurdistan through Turkey.

More surprising, however, were remarks from Huseyin Celik, a spokesman for Turkey’s ruling AK Party. “Unfortunately, the situation in Iraq is not good and it looks like it is going to be divided,” In the past, he said, an independent Kurdish state would be a “reason for war” for Turkey. “But no one has the right to say this now.” However, this past week leaders from both countries began tempering their support for such a move. Turkish government officials are now signaling that Turkey is committed to the “territorial integrity and political unity” of Iraq while Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lierberman recently stated that “Israel has no interest in getting involved.” (The Daily Star July 1, 2014)