Eurasia Security Watch: No. 354

Related Categories: Middle East; Turkey

TURKEY TROOPS TO BAGHDAD AFTER PROTESTS
Turkey sent hundreds of soldiers to Kurdish portions of northern Iraq on December 3, claiming that it was a routine rotation to train Iraqis to retake Mosul from ISIS. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that the deployment of the Turkish troops occurred without approval from the Iraqi government and thus was a violation of Iraqi national sovereignty. Al-Abadi threatened to turn to the U.N Security Council if the Turkish troops do not withdraw in the next 48 hours. Turkey has said that it would halt further transfers of troops to the area. (Reuters December 6, 2015.)

YEMEN FACTIONS AGREE TO PEACE TALKS; GOVERNOR KILLED
Warring Yemeni factions are to attend a UN-hosted peace conference in Geneva on December 15. The two sides are expected to issue a humanitarian ceasefire sometime before the peace talks commence. Meanwhile, Aden governor Jaafar Mohammed Saad and several aides were killed in a car bomb attack this month. ISIS militants have claimed responsibility for the attack. Earlier this year, government forces recaptured Aden with help from a Saudi-led coalition of Arab militaries. (Reuters December 7, 2015: BBC December 6, 2015)

U.S. INTEL REPORTS ISIS NOT CONTAINED
A White House-commissioned intelligence report has found that ISIS will continue to spread globally and grow in numbers unless it suffers significant territory losses on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria. This report was commissioned just before President Obama announced that ISIS had been "contained," and was delivered to the White House in the weeks following that statement. The report contradicts the administration’s assessment and indicates that coalition efforts thus far have not been as successful as members believed. (The Daily Beast December 6, 2015.)

SAUDI ARABIA TO HOST SYRIAN OPPOSITION TALKS
Saudi Arabia will host a meeting between Syrian opposition groups between December 8-10. The purpose of the meeting is to choose representatives for future international talks on the Syrian crisis. Riyadh invited moderate opposition groups from a variety of Syria’s ethnic and political groups. (Reuters December 6, 2015)

LIBYAN PARLIAMENTS REACH TENTATIVE AGREEMENT
Libya’s rival governments have reached a preliminary agreement to resolve the country's longstanding political crisis. The deal is meant to lead to a unity government and elections within two years. This agreement is separate from the UN efforts at mediation, but the UN special envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, called it a very good basis for moving forward. (BBC December 6, 2015)