LIBYA, AND THE WESTERN RESPONSE
The Islamic State's North African front continues to expand. The terrorist group's presence in Libya has continued to grow, and now totals some 5,000 fighters, according to informed estimates. In turn, the new ISIS theater of activity is beginning to garner international attention; NATO defense ministers recently met in Brussels to explore different plans of action to dislodge the group from its Libyan stronghold, including possible raids and advisory missions by U.S. special forces. Although officials maintain there is no large scale mission planned for the immediate future, the Islamic State's potential access to Libya’s oilfields - and its consequent enrichment - has led many to conclude that something decisive needs to be done in the near future. "The last thing in the world you want is a false caliphate with access to billions of dollars of oil revenue," Secretary of State John Kerry has explained. (Doha Al Jazeera, February 5, 2016)
THE ISLAMIST PENETRATION OF EUROPE
As migrants from the Middle East and North Africa continue to flood into Europe, EUROPOL officials are worried that they are bringing with them a significant jihadi contingent. European law enforcement officials estimate that between 3,000 to 5,000 Islamic radicals have been trained by ISIS and then shipped to EU countries. The goal of this infiltration, says EUROPOL director Rob Wainwright, is to position terrorist operatives throughout the Eurozone in such a way as to make them capable of "achieving mass casualties among the civilian population." (London Daily Mail, February 19, 2016)
PUSHING BACK AGAINST BOKO HARAM
A coalition force of the Nigerian and Cameroon armies have dealt a body blow to Boko Haram. Recently, at least 92 fighters affiliated with the terrorist group, which now styles itself the Islamic State's West African Province, were killed in the northeastern Nigerian village of Kumshe during a joint military operation by the two countries. The Kumshe raid was part of stepped up efforts by Nigeria, Cameroon and other African Union (AU) members to limit the scope and reach of Boko Haram, which has killed an estimated 20,000 people, displaced 2.3 million others, and expanded beyond Nigeria into Niger, Chad, and Cameroon since springing onto the regional scene in 2009. (Doha Al Jazeera, February 27, 2016)
A GROWING ISIS FOOTPRINT IN PAKISTAN
The Islamic State is expanding its activities in Pakistan. The group has reportedly broadened its recruitment efforts in the South Asian state, and has begun approaching professionals such as journalists in a bid to enhance their propaganda efforts in the country. Simultaneously, ISIS is stepping up its ideological competition with other terrorist groups active in Pakistan, the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda's newest franchise, al-Qaeda in the Subcontinent, prominent among them.
The trendline is a worrying one for the Pakistani government. According to Umer Khitab, the top counterterrorism official in Pakistan's port city of Karachi, ISIS boasts "great potential" in terms of growth in the country, because of a wellspring of Sunni extremism in Pakistani society and because of broad anti-Shi'ite sentiment there that echoes the Islamic State's own animus. (Associated Press, March 2, 2016)
THE ISIS THREAT TO THE U.S.
The United States remains squarely in the crosshairs of the Islamic State, a new Congressional study has concluded. The analysis of 75 ISIS-linked plots against the West, authored by the majority staff of the House Homeland Security Committee and entitled "#Terror Gone Viral," outlines growing ISIS efforts to carry out terrorist attacks against Western nations. "The group's focus on external operations has risen significantly," the study notes. "In 2014 there were 19 ISIS-linked plots against the West; in 2015, the figure more than doubled to 48." Moreover, while the group has succeeded in carrying out terrorist attacks in places like Paris, France, its "number-one" target remains the United States. According to the report, "[m]ore than one-third of ISIS-linked terror plots" surveyed "were aimed at the United States or its interests overseas." (House Homeland Security Committee, March 2016)
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