A HEZBOLLAH WITHDRAWAL... PERHAPS
Is Hezbollah having second thoughts about its participation in the war in Syria? In the wake of Russia's March 14th announcement of plans for a partial military withdrawal from Syria, Lebanon’s Shi'ite militia also appears to be rethinking its ongoing operations in support of the Assad regime. Lebanese news sources have reported that hundreds of Hezbollah fighters have abandoned the Syrian battlefield and returned to Lebanon. While Hezbollah has officially denied the rumors, sources said to be close to the organization allege that Russia's surprise decision was "the main factor that flipped the war plan for Hezbollah from attack to pulling out." (NOW Lebanon, March 15, 2016)
ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK IN AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan's government is claiming victory in its fight against the Islamic State. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has said that, as a result of "massive" security operations by government forces in conjunction with U.S. air strikes over the past half year, ISIS militants are now "on the run" in the east of the country. Indeed, U.S. forces have stepped up their level of military activity in recent months; in January and February, the United States carried out three times the number of airstrikes from the same period a year earlier as part of intensifying American military involvement there.
But ISIS is not the Afghan government's only worry. An ancillary concern is the Taliban, which has gained strength in recent times and is now gauged to be at its most dominant since 2001. The movement is believed to have 20,000 to 40,000 fighters - "at least 20 times" the number of those belonging to the Islamic State, according to news reports. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 15, 2016; New York Times, March 18, 2016)
FRANCE'S ABORTIVE CT PLAN
Last November's coordinated series of bombings and killings by Islamic radicals in Paris prompted French President Francois Hollande to attempt an overhaul of the national constitution. Hollande's plan involved the crafting of amendments to the document that would strip militants who had been convicted of terrorism of their nationality. Yet the concept has met with stiff resistance from Hollande's political opponents, leading the French leader to ultimately give up on the idea after months of political wrangling. "A compromise appears out of reach," Hollande admitted after France's two houses of parliament failed to agree to the reforms. (BBC, May 30, 2016)
ISRAEL GIRDS FOR ISIS INCURSION
Amid rising Islamic State activity on its periphery, the State of Israel is beginning military preparations to combat the terrorist group. The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded a series of exercises in recent weeks simulating various ISIS incursions into the country, most prominent among them an ISIS seajacking and hostage-taking in Israel's territorial waters. The naval drill took place near the Sinai Peninsula, where one of the Islamic State's newest affiliates - the group formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis - is active.
The Islamic State's appeal, meanwhile, is spreading inside the country. Four Palestinian residents of east Jerusalem have been indicted for ISIS-linked activity. The men, ranging in age from 20 to 25 years old, were part of a cell that allegedly had plotted to carry out terrorist attacks against embassies and consulates in the city, and at least one had sought to travel to Syria to join the fighting there. (Israel Hayom, March 26, 2016; Algemeiner, April 1, 2016)
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