ISIS DRONES TAKE FLIGHT
Even as it has begun to suffer significant territorial losses at the hands of the U.S.-led coalition, the Islamic State has accelerated its military campaign in northern Iraq through the use of a new tactic: drone warfare. In the wake of the group's announcement of its establishment of a fleet of modified drones equipped with bombs, this capability has been used against Iraqi forces in the contested city of Mosul. Pentagon officials have declared the drones to be of only limited military significance, claiming that they will not affect the Iraqi government's timetable for recapturing Mosul, U.S. and Iraqi officials have nevertheless issued warnings to military forces near the front lines regarding the danger that the UAVs pose. IS' drone capabilities, moreover, are growing; the group is now said to be recruiting engineers and scientists to work on their weapons programs, and utilizing facilities to manufacture drone parts or modify civilian UAVs for use in combat. Additionally, while it may have only a limited impact on military operations for the immediate future, the IS drone fleet is proving useful for another reason - it has been nothing short of a propaganda coup for the terrorist group, boosting the morale of its operatives and their supporters. (Washington Post, February 21, 2017)
RUSSIA'S JIHADI LEGION
Just how many Russians and Central Asians are now fighting in the Middle East? That figure is widely understood to be significant. But, until now, the true scope of the jihadi contingent hailing from the "post-Soviet space" has been hard to quantify. During a recent public address, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin provided the most authoritative estimate of this figure to date when he indicated that Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU, believes that as many as 4,000 Russian nationals, alongside a further 5,000 combatants from other former Soviet Republics, are now fighting in the ongoing civil war in Syria. (The Moscow Times, February 23, 2017)
[EDITORS' NOTE: Putin's revelation is significant, since it suggests that the share of foreign fighters from the former Soviet Union is far larger than commonly understood in the West. All told, an April 2016 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that the Islamic State had succeeded in attracting more than 31,000 recruits to its cause since its rise in 2014. Russian and Central Asian militants may thus account for nearly a third of all foreign fighters now active in the "caliphate."]
AFGHAN FORCES PUSH BACK
Afghan government forces have launched a new offensive to reclaim two mountainous districts (Kot and Haska Maina) in Nangarhar Province from the Islamic State, which has become ensconced in parts thereof. Provincial spokesman Attaullah Khogiani noted in a press conference that the offensive, designated "Shafaq IV," is expected to be "more effective than previous initiatives," as it encompasses both local and international support. NATO forces will provide close air support to Afghan ground units while local volunteer forces under the supervision of the National Directorate of Security (an Afghan intelligence agency) will oversee security in the villages that are liberated from IS rule. Afghan military officials are adamant that the offensive will continue until IS forces are "eradicate(d)" from the region. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 13, 2017)
THE ECONOMIC STATE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE
The Islamic State is facing deep financial trouble, with its "business model" in disarray as a result of coalition pressure, a new report by the London-based International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and the accounting group Ernst & Young has assessed. The study notes that the IS business model has primary revolved around revenue generated through oil sales, looting, and taxation within the territories it has conquered and controls. In turn, the loss of territory as a result of direct military action by the United States and its international partners has led directly to a state of financial decline; revenue generated through looting is estimated to have dropped significantly as the group's expansion has stalled, while IS-controlled oil fields have been extensively targeted as part of U.S. and allied airstrikes. The study notes, moreover, that the Islamic State has not been able to find any viable alternatives to replace these losses, with continued revenue generated through the ransoming of civilians and the sales of stolen antiquities not being substantial enough to compensate.
The results are significant, with the organization's overall revenue declining by about 50 percent over the past two years. However, the study notes, this has not eliminated the extra-territorial threat posed by the Islamic State, because its operations beyond the "caliphate" in places like Europe generally tend to be "self-sufficient" and therefore not affected by the core group's financial woes. (Boston Globe, February 18, 2017)
AN EXTREME EDUCATION
The Islamic State has developed an extensive education programs aimed at indoctrinating young children in the territories under its sway and molding them into a new generation of jihadis. The group has built schools, crafted textbooks and even developed phone apps for the purpose of providing pupils with a curriculum that covers a wide range of jihadi topics alongside courses in math, grammar and English. According to experts, IS is seeking to both physically and mentally prepare children for their future as fighters, exposing them to violence on a daily basis in order to normalize it. While it is still too early to tell what impact these educational efforts will have, experts have warned that the potential payoff could be significant. According to Peter Weinberger of the University of Maryland, the group is forging a cadre of highly skilled English-speaking operatives capable of being deployed behind enemy lines to recruit potential fighters and form lucrative connections to criminal networks. (Foreign Policy, February 16, 2017)
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