AL-SHABAAB VERSUS THE AU
While the Islamic State continues to grab international headlines (most recently by carrying out a series of high-profile terrorist attacks in Tunisia, Kuwait and France), its ideological competitor is also making gains - albeit more quietly. In recent days, al-Shabaab - Somalia's al-Qaeda-linked Islamist terrorist group - launched a major offensive against an African Union base in the village of Lego, in the country's southwest. The outpost, part of the 22,000 man African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), was completely overrun by the jihadist group, which is said to have killed dozens of soldiers and taken "complete" control of the area. (Agency France-Presse, June 26, 2015)
THE U.S. FIGHT AGAINST ISIS, YEAR ONE
Late June marked the one-year anniversary of the formal establishment of the Islamic State: the declaration of the "caliphate" by the group's self-declared emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Mosul, Iraq last summer. In the time since, the United States has spent nearly $3 billion on a tactical campaign of aerial bombing against ISIS militants in both Syria and Iraq, and 3,500 U.S. soldiers have been committed to training Iraqi troops. Additionally, according to U.S. officials, "more than 10,000" fighters affiliated with the Islamic State since the start of U.S. military operations against the group in August/September of 2014.
During that time, however, the Islamic State itself has not only survived, but expanded. "After conquering an area covering over 80,000 square miles and including a population of approximately 10 million people, IS has gone on to create two dozen franchises around the world including a fledgling organization in the United States that already boasts over 200 members," notes military historian Joseph Micallef. As a result, he contends, it's reasonable to conclude that "[n]otwithstanding a never-ending stream of upbeat pronouncements from the White House, the fact is, a few notable victories notwithstanding, we are losing the war against the Islamic State." (Long War Journal, June 3, 2015; Washington Post, June 10, 2015; Associated Press, June 12, 2015; Huffington Post, June 29, 2015)
TREPIDATION IN PARIS...
France has a looming jihadist problem, the country's most prominent newsmagazine has charged. According to Le Figaro, French intelligence officials are increasingly apprehensive over the large quantity of "potential jihadists" - estimated at some 1,730 - who are now believed to be active in the country and capable of carrying out terror attacks against domestic targets. A secondary concern, the report notes, is the French government's tracking and detention of nationals who have gone abroad to Iraq and Syria to join the jihad there - and whose "detention" upon their return is increasingly difficult to effectuate. (ANSARMed, June 18, 2015)
...AND MOBILIZATION IN TUNIS
In the wake of the terrorist attack carried out by a lone ISIS gunman at a holiday resort near the town of Sousse on June 26th, the Tunisian government is stepping up its counterterrorism measures. The crackdown, announced by Tunisian Prime Minister Habib Essid, includes - among other measures - the deployment of army reservists to guard archeological sites and resorts and the imminent closure of some 80 mosques around the country accused of spreading Islamist ideas. "The country is under threat; the government is under threat," he has said. (BBC, June 27, 2015)
MILITANT RETRIBUTION IN EGYPT
On June 29th, a car bomb attack killed Hisham Barakat, Egypt's top public prosecutor, and wounded at least nine others near Barakat's home in Heliopolis. While no organization has as yet claimed responsibility, the attack is strongly believed to have been carried out by Islamic militants in retaliation for the prosecution of Muslim Brotherhood members by the government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi over the past two years. (Reuters, June 29, 2015)
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